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Kent State will travel to Toledo for a 6 EST matchup. Toledo comes into this one (12-2) in Conf play while Kent is (10-4) but there is a huge skill gap between these teams which should result in an easy win for the Rockets at home. The Rockets are shooting 51.8% from the field at home averaging 85.6 PPG while Kent is shooting 42.6%  averaging just 65.9 PPG on the road. Toledo has fared well vs good teams as of late (7-0 ATS) in their L7 vs .600 or better opponents and are (7-2 ATS) as a home favorite while Kent is (0-4 ATS) as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Kent also falls in a bad (13.6%) system involving a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and both teams shoot 73% or better from the FT line and the underdog has shot 47+% from the field in 3 straight games (3-19 ATS) L5 seasons. Lay the points with Toledo. 

Pick: TOLEDO -8

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Providence will host Villanova at 8 EST where the Friars are 4.5 point dogs. Providence has won 19 straight games at home and are (7-0 SU/ATS) as a dog this season and are (7-1 ATS) following an ATS loss. Nova is (2-4-1 ATS) as a road favorite and (3-6-1 ATS) in all road games this year. This game should come down to the wire so it will be nice to have those 4.5 points in the back pocket, Take Providence at home.

Pick: PROVIDENCE +4.5

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The Tennessee Volunteers will host the Kentucky Wildcats at 9 EST. The Wildcats are (6-4 SU/4-6 ATS) on the road and are (1-6 ATS) after covering in 2 of their L3 games this season. Tennessee is off a 9 point win over Vandy but failed to cover which bodes well for them tonight since they are (8-1 ATS) following an ATS loss and are 13-0 SU at home. Kentucky got the best of Tennessee in the first meeting winning 107-79 but Kentucky was firing on all cylinders that game hitting 68% of their shots so don't expect the same result tonight as Tennessee will be on their home court where they hold opponents under 60 PPG. Take Tennessee in this revenge spot.

Pick: TENNESSEE -1.5

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 The Atlanta Hawks will look to bounce back after getting smoked 136-121 by the Spurs but they are a poor (2-11 ATS) off a double digit loss this season and (1-10 ATS) in road games off a 15+ point loss over the L3 seasons. The Celtics are playing their best basketball in a while going 7-0 SU in their L7 games so I expect them to roll today at home. The Hawks are also (2-8 ATS) as a 3.5 to 9 point dog. Play on the Celtics.

Pick: BOS CELTICS -7.5

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 8-16 Marshall will travel to 14-9 UTEP for a 3 EST matchup. Marshall has been dreadful on the road going 1-9 SU/ATS and are allowing 80+ PPG while UTEP is holding opponents to 62.4 PPG on their home court. Marshall is also (2-12 ATS) vs teams with winning records and (0-10 ATS) after going under the total. Fade Marshall on the road.

Pick: UTEP -5.5

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Arkansas will travel to Alabama after knocking off #1 Auburn on Tuesday. We will fade Arkansas off that big win since they are (25-45 ATS) off an upset win and are (5-15 ATS) if that upset win came at home, they are also (3-8 ATS) in their L11 road games as a dog of 6 points or less. In the L4 meetings between these teams the home team has covered the spread by an average of (+10.25 points). The Razorbacks don't fare well in road games on Saturday as they are (5-13 ATS) in Saturday road games under coach Musselman. Fade the Razorbacks

Pick: ALABAMA -5

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Northeastern will go on the road where they have struggled going 0-10 SU/ 1-9 ATS and will be greeted by the Drexel Dragons. Drexel is coming off a loss to Hofstra but that favors them today since they are (13-4 ATS) off a SU loss and (11-1 ATS) after failing to cover the spread. Fade Northeastern on the road today.

Pick: DREXEL -6.5

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23-2 Murray State will take on 19-7 Morehead state at 4 EST today. The line only favors Murray State by 3 so they should get a lot of public action today based on their record and how small the line is but they are (3-8 ATS) as a road favorite of 6 points or less while Morehead is a perfect (7-0 ATS) as home dog of 6 points or less. Morehead is also 12-0 SU at home this year and are hitting 49% of their shots. Take the home dog in this one. 

Pick: MOREHEAD +3

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New Mexico State will travel to Utah Valley for a 4 EST matchup. This looks to be a good spot for the Aggies who are (8-2 ATS) vs .600 or better opponents and are a perfect (7-0 ATS) after failing to cover the spread. The Aggies are also (4-0 ATS) when the line is +3 to -3 while Utah Valley is (0-3 ATS) as a home dog of 3.5 points or less.

Pick: NEW MEXICO ST -3

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Radford will go on the road today where they have struggled 1-10SU/ 2-9 ATS to take on the Hampton Pirates. Hampton is (6-1 ATS) in their L7 games vs losing opponents while Radford is (3-8 ATS). Both teams play much better on their home court as their PPG rise 7 to 8 points compared to when they are on the road, take the home team in this matchup getting a free bucket.

Pick: HAMPTON +2.5

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The Charlotte Hornets will host the Grizzlies tonight at 7 EST. The Hornets played last night and got a big win over the Pistons but they are a poor (3-7 ATS) when playing B2B days while this is a revenge game for the Griz who lost to the Hornets earlier in the season and are (8-2 ATS) in same season revenge games this year. The Griz have now won 4 straight and are (9-3 ATS) off 4+ SU wins and are (8-1 ATS) off a 20+ point win. Take the Grizzlies to stay hot and get the cover tonight even with this big number.

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES -7

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10-11 Detroit Mercy will head to Youngstown Ohio to take on the Youngstown State Penguins at 7 EST. Both teams come into this one off B2B SU/ATS wins which hurts the Penguins who are (1-7 ATS) off 2+ ATS wins and both teams are playing on one days rest which bodes well for Detroit since they are (5-0 ATS) in that situation. Detroit has also been shooting lights out hitting 50+% from the field in their L2 games and the road team in this series is (9-1 ATS) in the L10 meetings. Take Detroit on the road today.

Pick: DETROIT U +1.5

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The Atlanta Hawks will host the Spurs as 7 point favorites tonight at 7:30 EST. This will be the Hawks the 2nd straight home game where they are (24-12 ATS) and (12-2 ATS) if they are off a double digit win in their previous game. The Hawks have also been playing well at home as of late going (8-1-1 ATS) in their L10. The Spurs did acquire some new pieces at the deadline with the big one being G. Dragic but he is listed OUT as of now with the other acquisitions listed Questionable. Lay the points with the Hawks at home. 

Pick: ATL HAWKS -8

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 The Delaware Hens will host Northeastern at 7 EST. The Huskies have struggled against winning teams this season going (4-11 ATS) and are (0-7 ATS) vs teams that make 8+ 3PT shots/game. These teams met on January 17th where Delaware won 82-76 in overtime but on their home court tonight I see the Hens rolling in this one since they were up 49-34 at one point last game but blew that lead and had to take care of business in overtime. Look for the hens to keep their foot on the gas in this one as they are clearly the better team.

Pick: DELAWARE -6.5

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This will be B2B games between Indiana St. and Evansville since they just played on Tuesday where Evansville won 65-56 as 9 point dogs. Normally I would look for Indiana St. to get revenge but they are (2-8 ATS) when revenging a home loss and on the road the Sycamores are 2-10 SU while Evansville is (11-2 ATS) in home games off a conference win as a 6+ point dog. Indiana St. is also (1-5-1 ATS) in their L7 games following a SU loss. Take Evansville + the points at home.

Pick: EVANSVILLE +4.5

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Morehead State will travel to Nashville to take on the Belmont Bruins at 8 EST. These teams played on January 20th where Morehead St upset the Bruins as 6 point dogs but Belmont is a profitable (21-9 ATS) when revenging a road loss and are also (21-9 ATS) off a home win. Morehead State is (0-6 ATS) as a road dog and (0-4 ATS) as a double digit road dog. Look for Belmont to get revenge tonight with a double digit win. 

Pick: BELMONT -9

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I’ve been keeping my eye on St. Thomas (MN) since they made a big jump from DIII to DI in just one season and today looks like a good spot to back them playing North Dakota. St Thomas is (3-0 ATS) against losing record teams while North Dakota is (1-6 ATS) and (0-4 ATS) if they have below a .400 win percentage. North Dakota is 1-13 SU/ 4-10 ATS in road games and (0-7 ATS) if they are a dog of 6 to 9 points. Lay the points with St. Thomas.

Pick: ST. THOMAS -6.5

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Duke will look to bounce back after their upset loss to Virginia on Monday but that puts them in a great spot today. Clemson will host the Blue Devils who are (6-2 ATS) off an ATS loss and (3-0 ATS) off a SU loss and cover in the following game by an average of (+6.33 points). Duke should have no problem covering this number despite only winning by 2 vs Clemson at home last month but they were missing a key guard in T. Keels in that matchup. Duke is (6-2 ATS) on the road this season and should win this game by 10+ tonight.

Pick: DUKE -6.5

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5-16 Evansville Aces will travel to take on 9-13 Indiana State at 7 EST tonight. The Sycamores have dominated this series going 7-0 SU/ 6-0-1 ATS in the L7 meetings with an average scoring margin of (+12.0). The Aces are 1-10 SU/ 3-8 ATS on the road this season and are (1-8 ATS) in their L9 road games as a 7.0 to 12.5 dog while Indiana State is (5-1-1 ATS) in their L7 games vs an opposition with a .400 win percentage or worse. Take Indiana State - the points. 

Pick: ARKANSAS +2

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Ohio will take on Toledo for a rematch since these teams met 18 days ago where Toledo got the best of Ohio winning 87-69 but I’m looking for Ohio to get revenge tonight on the road. Ohio is (9-0 ATS) in same season revenge games over the L3 seasons and are (4-0 ATS) in road games when the line is +3 to -3. For Toledo they are just (1-8 ATS) in their L9 home games vs teams with winning records and fall in a bad system of home teams when the line is +3 to -3 following 2+ overs playing in a game involving two teams that outscore opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season (3-17 ATS) L3 seasons.

Pick: OHIO +3

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5-16 Evansville Aces will travel to take on 9-13 Indiana State at 7 EST tonight. The Sycamores have dominated this series going 7-0 SU/ 6-0-1 ATS in the L7 meetings with an average scoring margin of (+12.0). The Aces are 1-10 SU/ 3-8 ATS on the road this season and are (1-8 ATS) in their L9 road games as a 7.0 to 12.5 dog while Indiana State is (5-1-1 ATS) in their L7 games vs an opposition with a .400 win percentage or worse. Take Indiana State - the points.

Pick: INDIANA ST. -9

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The Los Angeles Clippers will travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies at 8 EST. Memphis is favored by 8 points tonight which is a big number but I see this being a double digit victory for Ja and his squad since they are coming off a 135-115 victory over the Magic and are (6-1 ATS) off a 20+ point win this season. The Clippers are (2-9 ATS) vs SouthWest division opponents and are (3-10 ATS) when playing 2 games in 5 days while Memphis is (8-2 ATS) playing on 2 days rest. The Clippers fall in a (23.3%) system of road underdogs 3.5 to 9.5 off a home loss by double digits with a winning percentage between 40 and 49.5% (10-33 ATS). Lay the points with Memphis

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES -8

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 6-14 South Florida will take on 13-7 Temple who is (6-1 SU/ATS) in their L7 while USF is going in the opposite direction (1-6 SU/ 2-5 ATS). Temple is a perfect (6-0 ATS) in their L6 games vs losing teams and are (5-1 ATS) in road games. USF is coming off a 68-49 loss to UCF which does not bode well for them since they are (3-8 ATS) following a 10+ point loss and are (1-6 ATS) following a 15+ point loss. The road team in this series is (8-2 ATS) in the L10 meetings, take temple - the points.

Pick: TEMPLE -4

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16-8 North Dakota St. Bison will host 13-9 South Dakota at 8 EST. South Dakota has not fared well vs winning opponents (1-8 ATS) and are in a bad situation of playing on the road following 3+ home games (1-6 ATS). The Bison come into this one off B2B ATS losses but are (9-2 ATS) following 2+ ATS losses when the line is -3 to -6.5. North Dakota St. won @ S. Dakota 11 days ago 74-62 however South Dakota is (7-17 ATS) in their L24 revenge games including going (1-5 ATS) this season and are (2-8 ATS) if they lost the previous meeting by 10+. The favorite in this series is also (5-0 ATS) in the L5 meetings, take the Bison - points.

Pick: NORTH DAKOTA ST. -6

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 Montana Grizzlies will host the Southern Utah Thunderbirds at 9 EST. S. Utah is coming off 3 straight double digit victories at home but are now on the road where they are (1-6 ATS) and (0-4 ATS) following 3+ consecutive home games. Montana is coming off an 86-63 upset loss to Idaho State which puts S. Utah in a bad (20%) system of teams when the line is +3 to -3 off 2+ consecutive home wins by 10+ points facing an opponent off a 20+ point loss (6-24 ATS) L5 seasons. Montana is (7-1 ATS) in their L8 games following an ATS loss and are (6-2 ATS) at home, play on Montana.

Pick: MONTANA -2

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The Charlotte Hornets will host the Raptors at 7 EST tonight. The Raptors have been a great cover team as of late but most of those wins came on their home court where they are (12-2-1 ATS) in their L15 home games but are just (5-5 ATS) in their L10 on the road. The Hornets are (10-1 ATS) vs .510 to .600 opponents and are coming off a 104-86 defeat to the Heat but are a perfect (8-0 ATS) in home games off a double digit loss. The Raptors also fall in a bad system of road favorites after 3+ wins and playing on 2 days rest (25-46 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Hornets + the points

Pick: CHA HORNETS +1.5

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 Princeton will travel to Ithaca New York to play Cornell for an IVY league matchup. Cornell is a perfect (5-0 ATS) at home this year and will be revenging a loss since they got beat 72-70 @ Princeton back on January 8th. Princeton is (1-4 ATS) in conference games and (0-4 ATS) in competitive priced games when the line is +3 to -3 while Cornell is (4-0 ATS) in those spots. Cornell is also coming off an upset win @ brown and are (5-0 ATS) following a SU upset win this season. Take Cornell + points

Pick: CORNELL +2.5

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The Dallas Mavericks will host the 76ers tonight at 10 EST with the line favoring Dallas by 2. Philadelphia comes into this one off a 106-103 loss to Washington but that puts them in a system of teams when the line is +3 to -3 off a home loss by 3 points or loss playing in a non- conference game (108-61 ATS) since ‘96 and is (18-7 ATS) over the L3 seasons. The 76ers are (7-3 ATS) in their L10 road games but are (5-0 ATS) in their L5 games as an underdog. The Mavericks are (23-40 ATS) following a home game and are (0-4 ATS) as home favorites vs the Atlantic division. Play on the 76ers tonight.

Pick: PHI 76ERS

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Florida International will host Southern Miss at 7 EST with the line favoring the Panthers by 7.5. FIU is coming off B2B road losses in which they failed to cover the spread as well which is bad news for FIU as they are (2-10 ATS) following 2 straight road games and are (0-9 ATS) following B2B ATS losses when the line is 7 to 9.5. Southern Miss has dominated this series going (6-1 ATS) in the L7 meetings and are (8-3 ATS) after going under the total in B2B games and then priced from 7 to 9.5. FIU is also a poor (3-7 ATS) vs teams with losing records this season. Grab the points with Southern Miss.

Pick: SOUTHERN MISS +8.5

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UCF and South Florida will meet for an AAC matchup at 7 EST tonight. We will look at the under in this game since UCF is (14-3 Under) when favored by 10 to 13.5 and are (10-2 Under) following B2B SU losses. South Florida on the other hand is (13-4 Under) following 3 straight ATS losses and (15-4 Under) after going under the posted total in their 2 previous games. Both teams are coming off 4+ days rest as South Florida is (4-1 Under) in that situation this year and UCF is (8-3 Under) in all home games this season, 4 of their L5 meetings also went under the total by an average of 8.5 points. Take the UNDER

Pick: UNDER 130.5 

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20-2 Murray State will travel to Clarksville Tennessee to take on Austin Peay as 13 point favorites. Murray St. comes into this one riding a 10 game winning streak and are (5-2 ATS) in their L7 games but the Racers are just (3-9-1 ATS) after winning 10+ games and the line is 10-13.5 while Austin Peay is (19-9 ATS) as a dog priced form 10 to 13.5. The Racers also fall in a bad system of favorites 10 to 19.5 points after covering 5 of their L7 games and have a winning percentage of 80+% (44-90 ATS) L3 seasons. Murray State is (4-13 ATS) in road games following a double digit win and the home team is (6-1 ATS) in the L7 meetings. Play on Austin Peay.

Pick: AUSTIN PEAY +13.5

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SIU Edwardsville will host E. Illinois at 8:30 EST with the line favoring SIUE by 12. The Cougars are (0-4 SU/ATS) in their L4 games but good news for them they are a perfect (7-0 ATS) following 4 ATS losses while E. Illinois has covered in B2B games but are a poor (0-7 ATS) following 2 ATS wins. E. Illinois is also terrible on the road going 1-11 SU and averaging just 51.3 PPG and giving up 71.5 while SIUE is hitting at a 44.8% clip from the field and holding opponents to 62.2 PPG on their home court. Take SIUE Cougars - the big number.

Pick: SIU EDWARDSVILLE -12

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17-6 BYU will host 17-5 San Francisco for a late 10 EST start. BYU comes into this game off B2B upset losses on the road to Santa Clara and Pacific, they have also failed to cover in 4 straight games which bodes well for them tonight since they are (10-3-1 ATS) following 4 ATS losses. San Francisco has not fared well after playing B2B home games going (3-11 ATS) in the following game and are also (1-6 ATS) following a SU win when priced from 0 to +2.5. The Cougars on the other hand are (7-2 ATS) in home games when they are priced from 0 to -2.5. San Francisco averages just 65 PPG on the road compared to 81.9 PPG when they are on their home court. Take BYU on the short number at home.

Pick: BYU -1.5

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15-5 Longwood will head to Asheville North Carolina to take on the 12-9 Bulldogs. Longwood is (12-4 ATS) this season but on the road are just (4-3 ATS). The Bulldogs are 2.5 point dogs in this game which fares well for them as they are(7-2 ATS) as a dog this season and (6-1 ATS) in their L7 games vs teams with winning records while Longwood is (1-8 ATS) in road games vs team that outscore their opponents by 4+ PPG over the L2 years. Longwood also falls in a bad system of road teams when the line is +3 to -3 and have made 47+% of their shots in 4 straight games (21-46 ATS) since ‘97 and (1-7 ATS) over the L3 years.

Pick: UNC ASHEVILLE +2.5

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The Temple Owls will head to East Carolina to play the Pirates at 7 EST. The Pirates have dropped 4 straight games but they were underdogs in all of those but played a good game last time out losing by 1 to CINCI where they were getting 6 points. The Owls are 4-1 SU/ATS in their L5 games but are (1-4 ATS) after successfully covering the spread in 3 consecutive games and are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation ranking #310 in effective FG% which will not fare well against this Pirate defense that is holding opponents under 70 PPG on their home court. Take ECU to snap their losing streak tonight. 

Pick: E. CAROLINA +1.5

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The Kentucky Wildcats will host the Vanderbilt Commodores tonight at 7 EST. These teams met already this season where the Wildcats won 78-66 @ VANDY but we will back the Commodores tonight catching 15.5 points. Kentucky is coming off a big win @ Kansas where they won 80-62 but Kentucky is just (4-13 ATS) following a game where they covered the spread. Vandy is (9-2 ATS) in road games when revenging a same season loss and are (10-5 ATS) in their L15 meetings with Kentucky. Grab the points with Vandy.

Pick: VANDERBILT +15

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The Charlotte Hornets will travel to Boston to take on the Celtics in TD Garden at 7:30 EST. Boston is coming off B2B wins including a 122-92 victory over Miami in their last game but that does not bode well for them since they are (2-7 ATS) after a 15+ point win and (3-7 ATS) off B2B wins this season. The Hornets have had good success playing with rest since they are (11-3 ATS) when playing 2 games in a 5 day span and are a perfect (9-0 ATS) vs. .501 to .600 opponents.  Charlotte has also covered 6 in a row as an underdog vs the Atlantic division. Take the Hornets to cover the 6.5 points on the road tonight.

Pick: CHA HORNETS +6

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 8-8 Siena will host 7-14 Canisius at 7 EST tonight. Siena is coming off B2B SU/ATS wins but that doesn't bode well for them tonight since they are (20-36-3 ATS) off 2+ ATS wins and Canisius has dominated this series ATS wise going (8-2 ATS) in the L10 meetings. Take Canisius plus the points as I see this being a one possession game down the stretch.

Pick: CANISIUS +4

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St. Johns and Providence will meet for the 2nd time this season since they played on January 8th and Providence won 83-73. We will back the Red Storm in this spot since they just lost 73-62 but are (8-2 ATS) off a road loss by 10+ points and are (13-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 6 points or less in same season revenge games. Providence just played on Sunday but are (0-6 ATS) in road games playing on 1 or less days rest. The Friars offensive production takes a big hit on the road as they go from averaging 69.9 PPG to 61.1 PPG and their FG percentage drops 5.8%. Play on St. Johns at home tonight minus the points.

Pick: ST JOHNS -2.5

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9-10 NC Central will take on 14-4 Norfolk State at 9 EST tonight. NC Central averages 90.8 PPG at home but this number is skewed since they played 3 “no-lined” games and averaged 102.6 PPG in those but only averaged 73.0 PPG in actual lined games. We are catching value with Norfolk St. as only 3 point favorites when this line should be closer to 7, the Spartans are (9-3 ATS) on the road and are (9-1 ATS) vs losing teams this season. Look for Norfolk State to roll on the road tonight.

Pick: NORFOLK ST -3

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The 11-5 San Diego State Aztecs will host 8-13 New Mexico as both teams come into this one of opposite performances. New Mexico dominated San Jose State 86-70 at home while the Aztecs lost @ Utah St. 75-57 as favorites but look for a bounce back game from the Aztecs since Mountain west home favorites are (50-28 ATS) of an upset loss. New Mexico ranks #263 in Defensive efficiency as they lean on their offense for support but having to face a top 5 defensive team in the Aztecs coming off an upset loss is not a good spot to be. New Mexico is (3-11 ATS) off a double digit home win, take San Diego State to roll in this one.

Pick: SAN DIEGO ST. -14.5

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The Kansas City Chiefs will host Joe Burrow and the Bengals for the AFC Championship. The Chiefs have put up 42 in both playoff games while the Bengals have been on the lower scoring side putting up 26 and 19. If the Bengals want to have a chance in this one they have to put up points like they did when these teams met in week 16 where the Bengals won 34-31. Burrow had his 3rd highest pass attempts this season with 40 in that game and found great success completing 30 of them for 415 yards. The Chiefs are (8-1 OVER) in January games over the L3 seasons and are (11-3 OVER) in conference games this season. Look for a shootout in Arrowhead today.

Pick: OVER 54.5

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 Providence and Marquette played back in early January where Marquette slaughtered them winning 88-56 but I expect Providence to get revenge tonight. The Friars are 12-0 SU at home this year and are (10-1 ATS) when revenging a same season loss. Providence is also (21-8 ATS) as a home favorite of 3 points or less under coach Cooley, take Providence at home.

Pick: PROVIDENCE -2.5 

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 The 15-6 Drake Bulldogs will host 16-3 Loyola Chicago where the line favors Loyola -2.5. In Drakes 5 home games they are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS and are coming in off B2B SU wins but are a poor (1-7 ATS) off 2+ wins this season. Loyola shoots 37.6% from deep which doesn't bode well for drake who have struggled to guard the perimeter ranking #252 in 3P% allowed and are (1-12 ATS) vs teams that make 8+ 3 point shots/game. Look for the Ramblers to roll on the road.

Pick: LOYOLA CHI -2

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Western Carolina and Samford will play for the 2nd time this year, in the first meeting Samford smoked W. Carolina 85-60 but I like W. Carolina to get revenge today on their home court. The Catamounts fall into a system of home teams revenging a 20+ point loss and are off a road loss by 3 points or less (39-13 ATS) L5 seasons. The home team in this series has been cash covering in 10 of the L12 meetings and Samford is (4-17 ATS) following an ATS win. Play on Western Carolina today.

Pick: W. CAROLINA +3.5

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 Binghamton will take on Maryland Baltimore County at 2 EST today. Since Binghamton has gotten fully healthy they are (6-2 ATS) and I believe the books numbers have yet to catch up on them since they started the year so poorly. Binghamton just lost to Hartford but are (5-1 ATS) off a SU loss. UMBC is (2-5 ATS) in conference games while Binghamton is (6-2 ATS). These teams are trending in opposite directions so take the hotter team at home in this one.

Pick: BINGHAMPTON +1.5

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Western Kentucky will host Middle Tennessee St. at 3 EST. The Hilltoppers have lost 4 straight games and are (0-3-1 ATS) in that stretch but I expect them to bounce back today since home favorites off a home loss, and 3+ consecutive losses facing a conference opponent off a road win cash around 66.5% of the time. The Hilltoppers have a massive height advantage in this one and rank top 10 in blocked shots. The Hilltoppers have the better offense and defense in this matchup so lay the points as this should be a double digit win.

Pick: WESTERN KENTUCKY -5.5

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Longwood will host Winthrop today at 3 EST. Winthrop is a wallet busting (3-13 ATS) this year but that gives us good value in this spot since they are listed as a small dog, the Eagles are (10-1 ATS) as a road dog in their L11 and are 9-1 SU in the L10 meetings with Longwood. Winthrop comes into this game as the better shooting team so as long as their defense can hang they should easily cover the +3.

Pick: WINTHROP +3

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Southern U will play at Alcorn St. today at 4 EST. Southern has flat out dominated this series as of late going 5-0 SU/ATS in the L5 meetings with the average scoring margin being +14.2. These teams have played 4 common opponents and Southern has a +/- of +10.0 while Alcorn is -4.7. I see Southern winning this game by a handful today, the Jaguars are also (8-1 ATS) in road games when the line is +3 to -3 and are (4-0 ATS) off a double digit home win.

Pick: SOUTHERN U -1.5

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Purdue Fort Wayne will take on Northern Kentucky for a Horizon league matchup at 7 EST. Fort Wayne is (8-2 ATS) in their L10 while N. Kentucky is (5-5 ATS) but have covered 3 straight coming into this one. The Norse have not fared well in the favorite role this season (2-7 ATS) and (1-5 ATS) as a home favorite. The Mastodons are a money making (8-2 ATS) in their L10 conference games and (4-1 ATS) as a road dog. N. Kentucky is coming off a 73-63 win over Wright State at home but are (2-9 ATS) off a SU home win. If this game comes down to the wire as the line depicts free throws will play a big factor down the stretch and the Mastodons have a massive advantage hitting 78.4% compared to N. Kentucky's 65.4%. Take Purdue Fort Wayne to keep this game within a possession on the road.

Pick: IPFW +3

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The Utah Jazz will head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies at 8 EST. Rudy Gobert is officially OUT tonight and D. Mitchell is questionable to play with a concussion. Memphis is coming off a 118-110 victory over the Spurs which favors them today since they are (8-0 ATS) following a divisional game and (20-12 ATS) following a SU win. The Jazz have been terrible against the number on Fridays going (1-6 ATS) and are (3-6 ATS) vs Southwest divisional opponents. This will be the Grizzlies first home game since the 17th because they were on a 4 game road trip but NBA teams coming off a 4 game road stand are (13-5-1 ATS) this season. Play on Memphis - the points.

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES -3.5

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4-16 North Dakota Hawks will take on South Dakota St. as 21 point dogs tonight. The line is set this high due to the fact N. Dakota has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking #358 in adj. Efficiency while S. Dakota St. ranks #9 in offense. The Hawks are 1-11 SU/ 4-8 ATS on the road and are (9-26 ATS) in their L35 as a road dog. South Dakota St. has covered 11 of their L16 as a double digit home favorite and are (46-20 ATS) in home games following an ATS win. Lay the huge number with the Jackrabbits as they should  be putting up points left and right.

Pick: SOUTH DAKOTA ST. -21

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Northern Illinois will host Ball State at 8 EST with the line favoring the Cardinals by a couple. The Cardinals are 7-10 SU/ 8-9 ATS in lined games this year but on the road are a wallet busting 2-8 SU/ATS. Northern Illinois has been playing decent ball in their L7 games despite going 2-5 SU they are (5-2 ATS) with upset wins over Kent St. and E. Michigan, they also kept it tight with Miami Ohio losing by 3 as 14 point dogs. The underdog in this series is (5-2 ATS) in the L7 meetings and more bad news for Ball St. is they are (3-11 ATS) in road games after covering 2 of their L3 games. Take the dog in N. Illinois

Pick: N. ILLINOIS +3

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Northwestern will take on 9-7 Michigan at 6:30 EST tonight with the line favoring the Wolverines by 7 points. The Wildcats have not fared well in the underdog role going (2-5 ATS) this season and are (3-8 ATS) vs winning teams. A trend that aligns with one another in this game is that Michigan is (8-2 ATS) after scoring 80+ in 2+ consecutive games while Northwestern is (1-10 ATS) after allowing 80+ points in their previous game. Northwestern also falls in a bad system of teams that average 74 to 78 PPG after losing by 20+ facing a team that scores 67 to 74 PPG (43-74 ATS) The home team is (8-2 ATS) in the L10 meetings. Lay the points with Michigan at home.

Pick: MICHIGAN -7.5

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Xavier will host Providence at 6:30 EST tonight with Ed Cooley and his men catching a handful of points. In providences 18 games 12 of them were vs teams with winning records and are (10-2 ATS) in those games. Providence is off a 7 point win over Butler in a game where they were favored by 9 but fortunately for them they are (5-1 ATS) off an ATS loss and are a perfect (5-0 ATS) as an underdog this season. Xavier is (1-6 ATS) in their L7 conference games and are (2-10 ATS) vs teams that make 72+% of their free throws. Grab the points with Providence on the road. 

Pick: PROVIDENCE +8.5

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Virginia Tech will host Miami for an ACC matchup tonight with the line favoring V Tech by 5 in most spots. Miami has been playing the better ball as of late going 8-2 SU in their L10 with both of those losses coming against Florida State by 1 point. On the other hand VTech has struggled thus far in conference play (1-7 ATS) and are (14-29 ATS) over the L3 seasons. I believe Miami has a good shot to win outright on the road today so getting 5 points is a gift, play on Miami tonight.

Pick: MIAMI +5

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UTRGV will host Abilene Christian at 8 EST tonight as 5 point dogs. Abilene finally snapped their 5 game SU/ATS losing streak to CAL Baptist getting the win + cover so its time to jump on them over the next few games. They are (7-1 ATS) following an ATS win and (21-8 ATS) following a SU win over the L2 seasons. The Wildcats are also (8-3 ATS) as a favorite this season while UTRGV is a poor (1-4 ATS) at home and (1-5 ATS) off a road loss. The Wildcats should win this game by double digits so lay the points.

Pick: ABILENE CHRISTIAN -5

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The San Antonio Spurs will play the Grizzlies tonight after their 134-104 blowout win over Houston. Unfortunately that puts the spurs in a bad system of home underdogs off a road win by double digits with a losing record on the season (18-41 ATS) L5 seasons. The Spurs are also just (8-20 ATS) in home games following an ATS win, meanwhile the Grizzlies just loss 104-91 @ Dallas but are (6-1 ATS) off a road loss and (5-0 ATS) if the loss was by double digits. Ja Morant is upgraded to probable today with D. Bane and B. Clarke questionable but D. Brooks, T. Jones and K. Anderson are OUT. I still believe the Grizzlies can overcome those inactives and get a win by 3+ tonight.

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES -3.5

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TCU will host Texas at 9 EST tonight with the line favoring Texas by a couple points. The Horned Frogs fare well in these tight lined contests going (6-0 ATS) when the line is +3 to -3 while Texas struggles in this spot going (0-3 ATS) this season. TCU is coming off a 59-44 victory over Iowa State as 6 point dogs as they are (6-2 ATS) off an ATS win meanwhile Texas has failed to cover in 4 of their L5 and are (3-10 ATS) over the L3 season when that situation occurs. Take TCU at home tonight.

Pick: TCU +2.5

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UC-Santa Barbara will travel to head to Northridge to play CSUN in their 7th road game this season. UCSB has struggled on the road this year going (0-6 SU/ 0-6 ATS) yet they have to lay 8 points tonight. UCSB is also (2-12 ATS) in their L14 games when playing a team with a losing record. This is a pure fade on UCSB as they are awful on the road this year. 

Pick: CS NORTHRIDGE +7.5

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12-6 Oregon will host 12-6 Colorado at 10 EST tonight with Oregon favored by 8 points. Oregon is (8-1 ATS) in home games when playing a team with a 60 to 80% win percentage over the L2 seasons while Colorado is (3-11 ATS) vs teams that average 14 or less turnovers/game. The home team in this series is (13-0 ATS) so the last time the road team covered was back on February 7th, 2013. The Ducks have also found their groove since the new year going 5-0 SU/ 4-1 ATS with an avg. cover margin of (+10.4)

Pick: OREGON -8

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Arizona has been running through the PAC-12 competition thus far but have been double digit favorites in all Conf. games so this will be their first true contest facing UCLA. The Wildcats are coming off a 96-71 victory over CAL but that puts them in a bad system of favorites off a road blowout win by 20+ in a game involving 2 teams over .800 win percentage (43-87 ATS) UCLA has only played in 2 games with a similar line to this one which was vs. NOVA where they won 86-77 and @ COL where they won 71-65, for Arizona the closest line was when they played @ TENN and lost 77-73. I expect a tight battle tonight but we will grab the points with UCLA at home.

Pick: UCLA +3

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Winthrop will take on High Point at 6 EST as a 3 point favorite. We will jump on the dog in High Point today as Winthrop is (0-9 ATS) as a favorite this season and are (0-5 ATS) vs losing teams. High Point is (6-0 ATS) in their L6 home games vs teams with winning records and are (6-2 ATS) as underdogs. Play on High Point.

Pick: HIGH POINT +3.5

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Binghamton will host Hartford at 7:30 EST. We will grab the points with Binghamton in this spot as they started the season 2-6 SU but were dealing with injuries and protocol issues every game, now they have been healthy and their record shows it as they are 5-2 SU/ 5-1 ATS with one no-lined game with an average cover margin of +5.6 in that stretch. The home team is (5-2 ATS) in the L7 meetings and this line keeps rising towards Hartford which means more value for us. Take Binghamton + the points as they should win outright.

Pick: BINGHAMTON +4

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The OKC Thunder will host the banged up Bulls on a B2B since they just lost 114-95 @ ORLANDO yesterday. The Thunder are 1-9 SU in their L10 games but are (6-3-1 ATS) in that span but this looks to be a good spot for the Thunder to get an outright win. The Thunder are (10-1 ATS) after allowing 100 points or less and are (30-15 ATS) in their L45 games when the line is +3 to -3. Take the healthier team at home tonight.

Pick: OKC THUNDER +2

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Quinnipiac will host Iona at 2 EST with the line favoring Iona by 8. This looks to be a good spot for Iona to get a big win since they are facing the #252 ranked defense so their offense should be able to put up points while their defense shuts down Quinnipiac’s #224 offense on the other side of the court. I see this being a double digit win for Pitino and his men. Iona is (5-1 ATS) following an ATS loss this season while Quinnipiac is (8-17 ATS) in their L25 games following 3+ consecutive wins.

Pick: IONA -7.5

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 Michigan will travel to Indiana as a 4 point dog in this conference matchup. Indiana is a perfect 12-0 SU and (10-2 ATS) at home while Michigan is (0-3 ATS) in their L3 road games. The Wolverines are (0-4 ATS) vs teams that make 45+% of their shots and are (1-4 ATS) vs teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Almost 60% of Michigan's offense comes from inside the arc but Indiana ranks #5 in 2P% allowed so look for Michigan's offense to struggle as they will be forced to shoot threes which is not their strong suit (hitting just 33%). Expect Indiana and their top 10 defense to lead the charge with the home crowd behind them to give them a win by 5+ points.

Pick: INDIANA -4

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The Rams will travel to Tampa Bay on a short week since they beat the Cardinals in the first ever Monday Night playoff game. These teams met earlier in the season where the Rams won 34-24 in LA but that is bad news for the Rams today as Tom Brady is (9-1 ATS) when revenging a same season loss by 10+ points. The Bucs are (7-2 ATS) in home games with an average cover margin of +6.11 PPG and are (6-2 ATS) coming off an under. Over the L3 years the Rams are a poor (1-8 ATS) after having won 6 of their L7 and are only playing on 5 days rest. At the end of the day there is no way I'm putting my money on Matthew Stafford over Brady in a playoff game. Take the Bucs.

Pick: TB BUCS -2.5

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The Tennessee Titans will take on the Bengals after their first round bye last week and will get star RB Derrick Henry back today after missing the majority of the season. The line favors TEN by 4 which is a key number and we’ve seen some teams over the years come out slow after their 1st round bye and this could be that spot as I see Cincinnati getting ahead early making this number tough to cover as it should be a tight contest at Nissan Stadium. Cinci is (6-2 ATS) on the road and if you look at their 7 losses 5 of them were by 5 points or less and the other 2 were blowouts and I doubt we see a blowout today. I see the Titans squeaking this one out late but failing to cover the 4, grab the points with Burrow and the Bengals.

Pick: CIN BENGALS +4

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Oakland and Wisconsin-Green Bay will meet for a Horizon league game at 1 EST. Green bay only has 4 wins on the season but one came in a “no-lined” game so we will cancel that win however when you look at how they perform following a win they lost 82-58 to Youngstown St. with the line favoring them by 0.5 point and lost 80-63 to IL-Chicago as a 1.5 point dog so I expect Oakland to do the same today as big favorites. Green Bay ranks #332 in Adj. defensive efficiency so look for Oakland to score at will today on the road. Oakland is (8-0 ATS) vs teams who have a 3P% of 31% or worse, Green Bay is also (1-4 ATS) as a home dog.

Pick: OAKLAND -8.5

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17-1 Auburn will host 15-3 Kentucky for a big SEC matchup. All 3 of Kentucky's losses came on the road vs Duke, @ Notre Dame and @ LSU, they are also just (2-4 ATS) on the road this season. The Wildcats come into this game on a 4 game winning streak but are (2-6 ATS) following 3 straight wins and are (1-4 ATS) following 4 straight wins this season. The home team in this series is (6-1 ATS) in the L7 meetings and Auburn is (8-1 ATS) at home this year. Take Auburn and on top of those numbers Kentucky should get tons of action as a dog today.

Pick: AUBURN -3.5

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12-5 Florida State will play 14-4 Miami at 2 EST. These teams met 11 days ago where Florida state squeaked out a 65-64 win but were 6.5 point favorites and now Miami is favored 2 and typically when a line jumps 7+ points form a previous meeting it does so for good reason. Florida State's leading rebounder/ #3 scorer M. Osborne is questionable for this game with an ankle injury which plays a big factor since Miami's biggest weakness is rebounding. Miami is (6-2 ATS) when the line is +3 to -3 while Florida State is just (1-3 ATS) in those tight lines and (1-4 ATS) in road games. Miami is (4-1 ATS) vs teams with a 60 to 80% winning percentage and FSU is (0-8 ATS) after going over the total. Lay the short number with Miami.

Pick: MIAMI -2.5

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12-6 Western Illinois will host 16-4 South Dakota St at 3 EST. South Dakota St. is coming off a 92-77 win over St. Thomas where they shot 55% from a 3 but are (2-11 ATS) after making 50+% of their 3PT shots and are (2-5 ATS) off a 15+ point win. Western Illinois is (6-2 ATS) as a dog and are (4-1 ATS) in home games. South Dakota St. is also (1-4 ATS) off one or less days rest, grab the points with Western Illinois.

Pick: W. ILLINOIS +5.5

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 LA Tech will host UAB at 4 EST with the line around a pick’em. UAB’s production drops immensely when they are on the road as they average 81.1 PPG but just 72.7 on the road and for their defense they hold opponents to 62.3 points/game but on the road allow 70.3. LA Tech is off a 76-62 victory over SO. Miss and are (8-2 ATS) off a double digit win and fall in a system of teams after 3 consecutive covers as a 7+ point favorites facing an opponent off a SU win but failed to cover (73-39 ATS) since ‘97 and that number goes to (32-8 ATS) when the team is playing at home. Take LA Tech +1.5

Pick: LA TECH +1.5

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 Bryant will travel to North Andover Massachusetts to take on Merrimack at 7 EST. Bryant is coming off a blowout win over St. Francis PA 82-52 but they have only covered 5 of their L20 games off a double digit win and are (2-8 ATS) if the win came at home. This will be Merrimack's 3rd straight home game which benefits them since they are (8-2 ATS) when playing 2+ consecutive games at home and have failed to cover in B2B games which they are (5-1 ATS) in that situation. This is also a double revenge game for Merrimack since they are returning all 5 starters from last year when they got swept by Bryant, Play on Merrimack at home with revenge.

Pick: MERRIMACK +1.5

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Illinois State will take on Evansville at 7 EST tonight. Evansville has not been a good cover team as of late going (1-4 ATS) in their L5 while Illinois State has covered 7 of their L8 so we are getting an inflated line on this game. Illinois State plays down to competition going (0-6 ATS) vs 20 to 40% win percentage teams and are coming off a game on the 19th vs Missouri State but are a poor (1-10 ATS) in their L11 games on one days rest. Fade Illinois State tonight.

Pick: EVANSVILLE +7.5

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The Charlotte Hornets will host the Thunder at 7 EST for their first meeting this season. The Hornets have been hot, winning and covering 7 of their L8 while the Thunder are 2-8 but (7-2-1 ATS) in their L10. The Thunder are (9-3 ATS) off 3+ consecutive losses and are (8-0 ATS) in their L8 games vs the Eastern conference as a road dog. Grab the points with OKC.

Pick: OKC THUNDER +9.5

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The Toronto Raptors will wrap up their 5 game road trip in Washington tonight at 8 EST. The Raptors have struggled going 1-4 SU/ATS in their L5 but had to play PHX, MIL, MIA, and DAL in that stretch and unfortunately for them they are in another tough spot tonight playing the wizards with the line at a pick’em. The Wizards are (9-2 ATS) in home games when the line is +3 to -3, this also a double revenge game for the Wizards who are (9-2 ATS) in that situation this season. The Raptors are (1-5 ATS) after playing 3 consecutive road games and are (3-7 ATS) after 2+ consecutive Unders, Take the Wizards at home.

Pick: WAS WIZARDS PK

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VMI will host Samford at 7 EST with the line favoring VMI by 4.5. Samord struggles vs winning teams late in the year going (3-13 ATS) vs teams with winning records after 15+ games into the season while VMI is (14-5 ATS) vs teams with a winning record. Samford has also only covered 12 of their L40 games as underdogs and are (6-17 ATS) after 2+ consecutive losses. Both defenses are pretty bad but VMI has the better offense shooting 7% better at home and are a top 5 team in Free throw percentage. I see VMI winning by 7+.

Pick: VMI -4.5

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14-2 Grand Canyon will travel to 10-6 SF Austin for a 7:30 EST matchup. This line is practically a pick 'em even though I believe GCU should be favored by a couple buckets. The Antelopes seem to play well vs good competition going (15-4 ATS) vs teams with a winning record and are (15-6 ATS) following 2+ consecutive wins. SF Austin is just (1-4 ATS) at home and are (0-4 ATS) when playing 3 games in a week while GCU is well rested since this will only be their 3rd game in two weeks. Take GCU on the road.

Pick: GCU +1.5

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Incarnate Word will host Houston Baptist at 8:30 EST. Houston Baptist is 0-8 SU and (2-6 ATS) on the road averaging just 57.4 PPG while allowing 76. Inc. Word is coming off a 16 point loss to Texas A&M CC but tend to bounce back nicely after a poor performance going (3-1 ATS) off a double digit road loss and are (6-1 ATS) after allowing 80+ in the previous game. Houston Baptist is (2-8 ATS) in their L10 as a dog and are (1-4 ATS) vs a team with a losing record. Look for Incarnate Word to win this one by 5+.

Pick: INC WORD -1.5

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9-8 Butler will host 12-4 UCONN tonight at 9 EST after they just met a few days ago in Connecticut where the Huskies won 76-59. Butler has struggled against good teams this year going (2-8 ATS) vs winning teams and (4-14 ATS) vs teams that outscore opponents by 8+ PPG. Butler also plays poorly with fatigue when playing 2 games in 3 days going (1-6 ATS) in their L7 and are a horrible underdog this season going (1-8 ATS) Fade Butler tonight.

Pick: UCONN -7.5

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 The Atlanta Hawks will take on the T-Wolves at 7:30 EST. The Hawks are (1-11 ATS) in their L12 home games and are (0-10 ATS) as a favorite in that stretch. The Hawks beat the Wolves 121-110 back on December 6th but Minnesota is (7-3 ATS) when revenging a same season loss while the Hawks just upset the Bucks 121-114 but are (4-11 ATS) following an ATS win and are (0-5 ATS) off an upset win. The Hawks also fall in a bad system of teams when the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 3 of their L4 games vs an opponent whose won 5 of their L7 (62-95 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Wolves + the points.

Pick: MIN T-WOLVES +2.5

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The Boston Celtics will host the Charlotte Hornets at 7:30 EST. The Hornets have exceeded the books expectations when playing teams with winning records going (15-5 ATS) and are (8-0 ATS) if they had a winning percentage of 51 to 60%. The Celtics are off B2B home wins but are (12-24 ATS) in that situation over the L2 seasons and are (10-21 ATS) off a double digit win. The Hornets lost 140-129 back on October 25th to the Celtics but are (8-1 ATS) when revenging a same season loss vs opponent and are (6-1 ATS) vs Atlantic division. Grab the points with the Hornets.

Pick: CHA HORNETS +3.5

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Ohio State will take on 1-14 IUPUI Jaguars in a non conference game sandwiched in between Penn State and Nebraska. This appears to be a good let up spot for the Buckeyes as they should have no problem taking care of the Jags at home but laying 33 points is a bit high. IUPUI only has 4 covers this season and 2 of them came as 12.5+ point road dogs and Ohio State is just (1-4 ATS) as a double digit favorite this year. I see Ohio State being up 20+ at the half and taking their foot of the gas in the second to rest some key players at this point in the season. Grab all the points with IUPUI.

Pick: IUPUI +33.5

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Houston will take on South Florida at 8 EST tonight with the line favoring Houston by 19. Houston should have no problem on defense since S. Florida has one of the worst adj. Offensive efficiencies in the nation ranking #324 against the #16 ranked defense in Houston. Houston is on a 7 game win streak but are off B2B ATS losses where they are (23-7 ATS) in their L30 and are (8-2 ATS) when playing just 2 games in a 7 day span. We’ve seen the Cougars run it up with lines like this earlier this season on Texas St. 80-47 as 19.5 point favorites, Rice 79-46 as 15 point favorites, Northwestern St. 99-58 as 31 point favorites, Bryant 111-44 as 23 point favorites and I believe we see that happen tonight. Lay the points with Houston. 

Pick: HOUSTON -18.5

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 Southern Miss will host LA Tech at 3 EST. I see LA Tech winning this game by 15+ points as SO. Miss will struggle to put up points today on this Bulldog defense. The Golden Eagles are (0-7 ATS) vs teams that make 45+% of their shots while LA Tech has covered 18 of their L24 conference games, LA Tech is also (16-8 ATS) in their L24 games as a double digit favorite and (5-1 ATS) this season while SO. Miss is (1-4 ATS) as a double digit dog and (1-6 ATS) off a double digit loss. Lay the points with LA Tech.

Pick: LA TECH -14

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The Dallas Cowboys will host the San Francisco 49ers at 4:30 EST. The Cowboys have been great against the number this year going (13-4 ATS) and (11-1 ATS) in conference games. The 49ers will play B2B road games since they won last week in LA against the Rams but teams off an upset win playing in B2B road games are (25-48 ATS) in the playoffs and the 49ers are (4-12 ATS) vs teams that average 260+ passing yards/game in 8+ consecutive games. San Francisco is also (1-4) in their L5 playoff games as an underdog. Lay the 3 with Dallas.

Pick: DAL COWBOYS -3

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 The Utah Jazz will travel to Denver to try and get off their 4 game losing streak but are in a good spot to do so. The Nuggets come into this game off B2B wins by 10+ points which doesn't fare well for them since they are (1-12 ATS) off two straight wins by double digits and are (13-28 ATS) after covering in 2 consecutive games. The Jazz fall in a (70.6%) system of road favorites off 2 or more consecutive upset losses playing an opponent off a home win (48-20 ATS) since ‘96. Lay the points with the Jazz.

Pick: UTA JAZZ -5

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 The Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet at 8:15 EST for an AFC Wildcard matchup. These teams met back on December 26th where the Chiefs won 36-10 but in the NFL it's hard to beat a team twice let alone blow a team out twice since they are favored by almost 2 touchdowns today. The Steelers are (10-2 ATS) in road games revenging a loss against an opponent by 14+ points while the Chiefs are (1-9 ATS) in home games after gaining 275+ yards in 4 consecutive games. Mike Tomlin is (43-26 ATS) as an underdog while Andy Reid is (1-8 ATS) in home games off a SU win but failed to cover. Grab the bundle of points with the Steelers.

Pick: PIT STEELERS +12.5

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 Yale will take on Cornell for their first IVY league game of the year. Yale has lost 3 straight games SU/ATS but are in a good spot to bounce back today since they are (7-0 ATS) in their L7 Conference openers and have had great success vs Cornell over the years. Yale is (12-3 ATS) in the L15 meetings with Cornell and are (5-2 ATS) in their L7 games off a road loss.

Pick: YALE -6

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Tennessee Martin will host Tennessee Tech at 3 EST today. Tennessee Tech has shot the ball decently this year hitting at a 45.1% clip which doesn't fare well for UT Martin who is (4-14 ATS) vs teams that make 45+% of their shots.. UT Martin has lost B2B games by 10+ points and unfortunately for them they are (12-25 ATS) after a loss by double digits. Look for Tennessee Tech to get the job done on the road.

Pick: TENN TECH -1

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 Morgan State will host Coppin State at 4 EST today. Coppin comes into this game as a road dog and despite their 2-14 record they are (10-4 ATS) on the road this season. Coppin is also coming off B2B games that went under the total where they are (5-0 ATS) in that situation and (9-1 ATS) off an ATS win. Morgan State is (3-12 ATS) in their L15 home games and are (1-6 ATS) as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take Coppin st. on the shirt number.

Pick: COPPIN ST. +1.5

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The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Raiders in a Wild Card matchup at 4:30 EST. The Raiders are coming off a high emotion win over the Chargers last week in O.T. for a :win and in” game. The Raiders are (1-12 ATS) off an upset win over a divisional rival as a home dog and are (8-20 ATS) after 3+ consecutive ATS wins. The Raiders fall in a bad playoff system of teams off B2B upset wins vs a non-division opponent (3-12 ATS) in playoffs. Fade the Raiders in this spot.

Pick: CIN BENGALS -5.5

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Southern U comes into this game 6-2 SU in their L8 and (7-0 ATS) with one no-lined game while Grambling is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in their L8. Southern falls into a bad system involving teams off 7+ consecutive covers playing on the road in a conference matchup. Look for Southerns' cover streak to come to an end tonight on the road vs 4-12 Coppin State. 

Pick: GRAMBLING +3.5

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The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Raptors at 6:30 EST. The Raptors are coming off a 103-87 defeat but good news for them, Toronto is (8-0 ATS) after scoring 90 points or less while the Bucks are (0-7 ATS) in home games after a non conference matchup and have failed to cover in 4 straight games as home favorites vs eastern conference opponents. The Raptors are playing on a B2B but they are (5-1 ATS) in that situation this season and are (5-1 ATS) off a 15+ point loss. Grab the points with Toronto.

Pick: TOR RAPTORS +7

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The Patriots and Bills will play for the 3rd time this season with the series split 1-1. The game New England won earlier this season was in Buffalo during that crazy blizzard where winds were north of 30 MPH, even though it's supposed to be around 5 degrees in Buffalo today there isn't supposed to be crazy wind so the Bills will be able to run their normal offense with gun slinger Josh Allen airing it out. Rookie quarterbacks in their first playoff games are (11-31 ATS) over the years which is the big trend I'm leaning on for this game. The Bills are (12-4 ATS) after 2 consecutive wins over the last few seasons and are (5-1 ATS) during a 2 game home stand. Play on the Bills - points.

Pick: BUF BILLS -4.5

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 Purdue is laying a bundle of points at home vs Nebraska but for good reason. Nebraska has one of the worst teams at guarding the perimeter ranking #300 while Purdue has been lights out from behind the arc hitting at a 40.8% clip and Purdue also ranks #1 in adj. Offensive efficiency compared to Nebraska’s #170.. Nebraska will not be able to keep up with Purdue in this one on the road where they are (0-5 SU) and (2-3 ATS), expect Purdue to control this game from the tip to the final buzzer. Lay the 20 points with Purdue on their home court on Friday night. 

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 VCU comes into this game on a 7 game win streak (6-1 ATS) while St. Bonnys is (0-7 ATS) in their L7 games. We are going to take the contrarian play here and take st. Bonus - the points since they fall in a (67%) system involving teams on a 5+ game ATS losing streak vs teams who have won 5+ consecutive games. In the last 4 meetings between these teams the home team has covered all 4 and St Bonnys is returning all 5 starters from last year when they beat VCU 74-65 at home. VCU is (1-4 ATS) in their L5 games when the line is +3 to -3 and are (11-25 ATS) in their L36 vs .750+ opponents.

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 Ohio State and Wisconsin will play for the 2nd time this season since they played back on DEC 11th where Ohio State got the best of the Badgers winning 73-55 but look for Wisconsin to get revenge on their home court today. Since that loss Wisconsin has rattled off 5 wins including 3 big ones over Purdue, Iowa and Maryland so I like them to keep it rolling in this revenge spot under coach Gard who is (15-7 ATS) when revenging a same season loss. Wisconsin is also (3-0 ATS) when the line is +4 to -4 this year.

Pick: WISCONSIN -3.5

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Navy will host Colgate at 7 EST where Navy is favored by 6. Colgate has been bad on the road this season going 1-9 SU and (2-8 ATS) and I expect their struggles to continue today facing a good defense in Navy. Navy is (8-1 ATS) as a favorite this season and (15-3 ATS) in their L18 conference games. The Midshipmen are also (6-1 ATS) vs losing teams and (4-0 ATS) if they have a win percentage below .400. Take NAVY - the points.

Pick: NAVY -3.5

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 Butler and Georgetown will square off in a conference matchup at 7 EST tonight. Butler comes into this one as a 3 point dog and the line has now dropped to 1.5 but good news for them the underdog in this series is (7-3 ATS) in the L10 meetings. Georgetown as a small home favorite is (19-37 ATS) over the years and both teams are off B2B losses but luckily for Butler they are (6-0 ATS) off B2B conference losses over the L2 seasons. Georgetown got the best of Butler last year winning both meetings however Butler is returning all5 starters so this will be a double revenge game, the last time Butler played with double revenge in this series they won outright as 2.5 point dogs on the road.

Pick: BUTLER +1.5

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 Louisiana Lafayette will take on UT-Arlington at 8 EST tonight. Lafayette has 5 players listed as questionable due to protocols and “undisclosed” issues which include 2 of their top 4 scorers. UT-Arlington is (6-2 ATS) vs teams with winning record and are (4-0 ATS) in conference play this year. The Mavericks also fall in a system that involves a team that has made 40% or worse of their shots in 3 straight games which is (72-32 ATS) over the L5 years. The underdog is (5-2 ATS) in the L7 meetings.

Pick: UT-ARLINGTON +1.5

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The Indiana Pacers will take on the Boston Celtics who just met a day ago. The line for the game in Boston was 8.5 where the Celtics won by 3 but this one will be played in Indiana and now the line has dropped to 3.5. The Pacers have fared well as a home dog this season going (6-2 ATS) however they are 1-6 SU in their L7 games but are (5-2 ATS) in that stretch and are (9-1 ATS) after having lost 5 or 6 of their L7 games over the past 2 years. The Celtics on the other hand struggle to cover vs bad teams going (1-4 ATS) this season vs teams who win 25 to 40% of their games and are (10-24 ATS) off a home win. Take the Pacers + points at home.

Pick: IND PACERS +3.5

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The Utah Jazz will return home after their horrid 5 game road trip where they ended it losing 3 straight to TOR, IND and DET. The Jazz were double digit favorites in their last game vs Detroit and lost by 10 which doesn't help them here since they are (3-7 ATS) off an upset loss as a double digit favorite. The Cavaliers on the other hand are coming off a SU win over the Kings where they went under the total which favors them since the Cavs are (15-6 ATS) following a SU win and (17-6 ATS) following a game that went Under. More bad news for the Jazz is that they have failed to cover the spread in 7 straight home games and are (1-5 ATS) vs Central opponents this season. For Cleveland they also fall in a (80%) system  of road underdogs revenging a loss by 3 points or less and that opponent is off an upset loss (32-8 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Cavs + the points on the road.

Pick: CLE CAVALIERS +6.5

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Dixie State will head to Cal Baptist for a late 10 EST tip off. CAL Baptist is coming off an upset loss as a double digit favorite on the road @ Chicago State but luckily for them they are (7-3 ATS) in their L10 games following a road loss and are (4-1 ATS) following an ATS loss this season. Dixie State has lost 4 straight games going (1-3 ATS) in that stretch and if you look at Dixie State's 7 wins this season only 3 of them came in lined games and two of those they were favored by 4+ points. Even with the lack of schedule Dixie has played they still rank #324 in defense efficiency while CAL Baptist has shot the ball well (53% in effective FG%.) I see CAL Baptist winning this game by double digits.

Pick: CAL BAPTIST -9

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The Phoenix Suns will travel to Toronto to play the Raptors who are riding a 6 game winning streak. The Suns are coming off an upset loss 123-100 to the Heat but luckily for them they are (3-0 ATS) off an upset loss by 10+ points this season and as road favorites off an upset loss the Suns are (44-16 ATS) over the years. The Raptors are (3-14 ATS) after having won 5 or 6 of their L7 games over the L2 years and fall in a bad system of home teams off a SU win but failed to cover the spread at home (45-87 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Suns to end the Raptors win streak tonight.

Pick: PHX SUNS -4.5

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The Detroit Pistons will look to make it 3 straight wins since they are coming off B2B wins over the Magic and Jazz. This will only be the 6th time in the L2 seasons the Pistons have won B2B games which happened earlier this month but in their effort to string together 3 wins they got smoked 140-111 to the Spurs and are (0-5 ATS) off B2B wins. The Bulls come into this game as the home favorite where they have been profitable going (10-5 ATS) and another reason to fade the Pistons tonight is that they are (1-12 ATS) off a home win by double digits. Lay the points with the Bulls.

Pick: CHI BULLS -13.5

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 Auburn will travel to Tuscaloosa to Play Alabama at 9 EST. Alabama is coming off an upset loss @ MIZZU 92-86 but I’m looking for them to bounce back tonight at home. Alabama is (7-0 SU) at home this season while for Auburn this will only be their 2nd true road game of the year. The Tide are (13-7 ATS) in their L20 when the line is +3 to -3 while Auburn is (8-15 ATS) in their L23 road games. Take Bama on the short number at home in a conference matchup.

Pick: ALABAMA -2.5

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UNC Greensboro will host Wofford for a Southern Conference matchup at 6 EST. These teams always play tight with 2 of their L4 meetings going to O.T. so we will gladly grab the 3 points with UNCGB at home. The Spartans are (5-2 ATS) as an underdog this season and rank #1 in rebounding in the Southern Conference, Wofford is (1-4 ATS) in their L5 games following a win. Take UNCGB Spartans + the points 

Pick: UNCGB +3

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The Detroit Pistons are coming off their 8th win of the season beating the Magic 97-92 but are (1-6 ATS) following a SU win this season and are (12-32 ATS) following a win over the L3 years. Now they have to face 28-12 Utah Jazz who are off an upset loss to the Pacers but that favors them today since road favorites off an upset loss facing an opponent off a home win (57-31 ATS) over the L5 years. I expect the Jazz to blowout the Pistons even with Ingles and Gobert Out.

Pick: UTA JAZZ -11

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Oregon State will host the Oregon Ducks tonight for a PAC-12 matchup. The Beavers had a rough start to the season but have strung together B2B wins and are starting to look like the team we saw last March. The Ducks have struggled on the road going (1-4 SU) and (0-5 ATS) while the Beavers are (11-1 ATS) following an upset win. We played on the Beavers for that upset win over Utah and we will jump on them again as this team appears to be getting hot. Grab the points with Oregon State.

Pick: OREGON ST. +4.5

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 IPFW Fort-Wayne Mastodons will travel to Robert Morris for a 1PM EST matchup. Rob Morris is coming off a loss to Cleveland State which went over the total but they are (2-8 ATS) following a loss and (1-5 ATS) after going over the total. On the other side IPFW Mastodons are coming off an upset win over Youngstown State 71-61 and are (21-7 ATS) off an upset win as a road dog. The Mastodons are shooting 80.9% from the line which does not fare well for Rob Morris who is (0-6 ATS) vs teams that make 72+% free throws.

Pick: IPFW MASTODONS -1

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4-10 Central Arkansas will host 8-8 Lipscomb at 2 EST. Lipscomb has struggled in the favorite role going (12-24 ATS) in their L36 and are (1-8 ATS) as a road favorite. Central Arkansas on the other hand is (8-2 ATS) in their L10 playing as a home dog. The only game this year where Lipscomb was a road favorite came against Tennessee Tech and they lost by 11 as 3 point favorites. Take Central Arkansas at home today.

Pick: CENTRAL ARKANSAS +5.5

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The Atlanta Hawks will look to bounce back after getting beat 134-118 to the Lakers in LA and now they will get a shot against the Clippers 2 days later. The Clippers have lost 3 straight and are on a B2B where they have struggled this year going (1-5 ATS) and are (2-6 ATS) off a 15+ point loss. The Clippers also fall in a (29.5%) system of dogs 3.5 to 9.5 off a double digit loss with a 40 to 49% winning percentage (23-55 ATS) L5 seasons. Fade the Clippers today.

Pick: ATL HAWKS -4

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Carolina Panthers who are 0-6 SU/ATS in their L6. The Bucs are a terrible (3-6 ATS) on the road but are (5-2 ATS) at home with an average margin of victory of +15. The Panthers offense has been horrible averaging 12.2 PPG in their L5 games and I don't see it being any different in this one. The Bucs are (11-3 ATS) following an ATS loss in the L2 seasons and Tom Brady is (30-16 ATS) as a home favorite in the L5 seasons. Tampa Bay is still playing for the #2 seed but even if they pull their starters late I don't see Carolina's offense doing much against them either.

Pick: TB BUCCANEERS -9.5

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7-5 Oklahoma State will host 12-2 Texas at 2 EST. Texas has played great defense this season holding opponents to 52.3 points/game and it will continue today since Oklahoma State has one of the worst Turnover % in the nation ranking #306 and against a Texas defense that ranks #2 in forcing turnovers should lead to a lot of points in transition for Texas. Oklahoma State is (2-6 ATS) in home games this year and are (1-6 ATS) following an ATS loss. Take Texas to win this game by 5+ points.

Pick: TEXAS -2.5

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Arkansas State will travel to LA-Monroe for this matchup at 3 EST. Arkansas State has been dreadful as road favorites going (15-33-2 ATS) in their L50 and are (9-21 ATS) in road games when the total is 145 to 149.5. Arkansas State at home has a +18.8 point differential but on the road is a much different story having a -5.3 differential and ULM is strong at home going (3-0 ATS). I see Arkansas State struggling on the road today so grab ULM on the short number.

Pick: UL MONROE +1

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9-3 San Diego State will host undefeated Colorado State at 4 EST. This game falls into a FADE system of mine that involves undefeated road underdogs in conference matchups which has cashed around 30%. This will also be Colorado State's first true road game of the year since all their games have been at home or on a neutral site. The Aztecs are 7-0 SU at home this year and since taking a 2 week break in early December they have looked much better upsetting St. Mary's and covering in their 2 following games. Look for Colorado State to be giving their first loss of the season today.

Pick: SDSU -2 

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GA Southern comes into this game off B2B losses SU/ATS but I'm looking for them to bounce back today since the Eagles are (11-1 ATS) after failing to cover in 2 consecutive games and are (6-0 ATS) after a loss by 15+. Texas Arlington has been hot winning 4 straight but 3 of those wins came at home as they don't fare as well on the road in these tight lined contests going (1-8 ATS) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 and are (2-6 SU) on the road this season. GA Southern is also (18-9 ATS) at home vs opponents off a SU win.

Pick: GA SOUTHERN -3

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Texas Tech will host Kansas st 4 EST today with Kansas favored by 5 points. I believe this game will be tighter than the line depicts as I see it coming down to the final shot. The Red Raiders are coming off a loss @ Iowa State but Texas Tech has played well coming off a loss this season upsetting Tennessee 57-52 as 4 point dogs and blew out E. Washington after losing to Gonzaga. Texas Tech has the length to compete with Kansas down low and I believe Texas Tech has the stronger defense playing at home. Look for Texas to cover this number as they have a good shot at winning outright.

Pick: TEXAS TECH +4.5

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The Kansas City Chiefs will play the Broncos in Denver at 4:30 EST. I like taking the underdog with the better defense and we have that situation in today's matchup as the Broncos are holding opponents to 18.4 PPG while the Chiefs allow 21 PPG but that number jumps to 26 if they are playing on the road. The Broncos are coming off a 34-13 loss to the Chargers but Denver is (15-3 ATS) in home games off a loss by double digits to divisional rivals. The Broncos also fall in a system of underdogs +10 or more that allow 21 points or less/game (113-81 ATS) Take the Broncos even though they have a 0% chance at the playoffs they will still play hard as they have a chance to ruin their divisional rivals chance of getting the #1 seed.

Pick: DEN BRONCOS +10.5

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North Dakota will take on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks at 8 EST. North Dakota comes into this game (1-7 SU) and (2-6 ATS) in road games but this is no surprise since over the L3 years they are (9-27 ATS) on the road. North Dakota is also coming off an ATS win covering against North Dakota State but are a poor (6-16 ATS) in their L22 off a cover. Fade North Dakota on the road tonight..

Pick: NEBRASKA-OMAHA -3

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RICE will host Middle Tennessee State in a conference USA matchup at 8 EST. Rice won and covered in both meetings last year winning 77-66 and 91-83, Rice still has all 5 starters from last year's squad and get to play them at home tonight. Rice shoots lights out home hitting at a 50.3% clip compared to Middle Tennessee State 42.9%. Rice is (17-7 ATS) as a favorite over the L3 seasons while Middle Tennessee State is (9-21 ATS) in road games when listed as an underdog of 9 points or less. Play on Rice at home.

Pick: RICE -4.5

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 8-3 North Texas will host 12-3 UAB for a conference matchup. North Texas has been a good cover team going (23-13 ATS) over the L2 seasons and I believe they're in another good spot today. North Texas is (3-1 ATS) this season when playing a team with a .600 win percentage or higher and (4-0 ATS) vs teams that score 77+ PPG. UAB falls in a bad system of road teams after 3 straight wins by 10+ points and average 76+ PPG facing a defense that allows 63 or less PPG (71-128 ATS) since ‘97.

Pick: N. TEXAS -2

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App State and South Alabama will battle it out at 8 EST on South Alabama's home court. App State has struggled in true road games going (0-4 SU) and (0-3-1 ATS), now they have to play South Alabama who is (3-0 SU/ATS) at home in lined games with an average cover margin of +6.9 points. I can't trust this App State on the road and against a team that plays well on their home court as this is a bad recipe for the Mountaineers. Take South Alabama - the points.

Pick: SOUTH ALABAMA -6

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UNC Greensboro will host the Furman Paladins at 7 EST. UNCGB hasn’t been the same team as in recent years possibly due to their coach leaving to  Cincinnati but Furman should be able to shoot well enough in this match causing UNCGB to fall behind behind early where they struggle since Furman is ranked #25 in effective FG%. UNCGB is (1-3 ATS) vs winning teams and are (29-52 ATS) as a home dog.

Pick: FURMAN -4

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 The Spurs will travel to Boston after losing last night in Toronto but the key factor tonight is PG D. Murray is expected to be back after missing the L5 games due to protocol. Surprisingly teams off 3 consecutive road losses playing on B2B days are (31-11 ATS) L5 seasons. The Celtics then fall in a bad system of teams off a SU win but failed to cover the spread with a losing record (16-37 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Spurs + points even though they failed us last night.

Pick: SA SPURS +8

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The Kentucky Wildcats will head to LSU for an SEC matchup. Kentucky is coming off 3 straight home games which hurts them today since they are (1-4 ATS) following 3 consecutive home games this season and are (1-7 ATS) if you count last season. On top of that the Wildcats have won 4 straight games by double digits but are (1-5 ATS) in that situation. LSU has been a cover machine at home going (22-13 ATS) and (8-0 ATS) this season. Kentucky is also (3-11 ATS) following an ATS win. Take LSU at home.

Pick: LSU -2

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North Alabama will head to Nashville to play Lipscomb at 8 EST for an ASUN matchup. Both teams are going in opposite directions with North Alabama going (4-0 ATS) in their L4 and Lipscomb going (0-4 ATS) but we will take Lipscomb in this spot as favorites after failing to cover the spread in 4 consecutive games against an opponent who has covered in 4+ consecutive games (111-68 ATS) since ‘97. Lay the points with Lipscomb

Pick: LIPSCOMB -6.5

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The Sacramento Kings will head to SO Cal to play the Lakers at 10:30 EST. The Lakers are (7-15 ATS) in home games this year and are (8-20 ATS) in their L28 home games vs teams with losing records. The Kings have covered 22 of their L30 as a road dog of 6 to 12 points including (4-1 ATS) this season. The Lakers are a money burning (1-12 ATS) off 2+ consecutive home wins over the L2 seasons and have failed to cover in 5 straight as a favorite vs the Pacific division. The Kings are (4-0 ATS) in their L4 games @ LAL. Fade the Lakers tonight.

Pick: SAC KINGS +6.5

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 The Memphis Grizzlies will head into Brooklyn without SG Dillon Brooks, SF D. Melton, SF K. Anderson and some others but I still believe the grizzlies cover this number on the road. The Nets are (0-10-1 ATS) in their L11 home games while the Grizzlies are (7-3 ATS) in their L10 games as a dog and are (7-1 ATS) as a 3.5 to 10 point dog this season. The Nets also struggle to cover in the month of January as they are (12-21 ATS) in their L33 while the Grizzlies are (5-0 ATS) off a divisional game.

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES +6.5

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 10-3 Iowa will host 8-4 Maryland at 9 EST tonight. We will take the Hawkeyes laying the 8 points as I believe this Maryland team is overrated and this will also be their first true road game of the season. Maryland is (3-12 ATS) off an ATS win over the L2 seasons while Iowa is (28-12 ATS) in home games. Iowa has a 54.6% effective FG% compared to Maryland's 47.4% and Iowa has way more depth ranking #16 in bech minutes compared to Maryland who is #303. Iowa has covered 3 straight games which puts them in a system of favorites after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite in a game involving two teams with a .600 to .800 win percentages (50-19 ATS) L5 seasons.

Pick: IOWA -8.5 

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The Las Vegas Raiders will head to Indy after winning 17-13 over Denver as a 1 point dog however, teams off an upset win as a small dog with a winning record playing an opponent who also has a winning record are a terrible (15-45 ATS) since ‘83. The Colts have won 6 of their L7 games and going 5-2 against the number in that stretch, they are also (6-0 ATS) following an under. Historically the Raiders play poorly off a home upset win going (6-26 ATS) and that trend goes to (0-12 ATS) if that win was over a divisional rival. Lay the points with the Colts.

Pick: IND COLTS -8.5

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Washington will host the Eagles for a NFC East matchup at 1 EST. The Eagles come into this game going Over the total in their previous 3 games while Washington has gone Over in their L2 but we will look to take the Under in this spot. The Eagles are (25-11 UNDER) off 3+ Overs while Washington is (14-4 UNDER) off a 21+ point loss to a divisional opponent and are (6-0 UNDER) in home games during the 2H of the season over the L2 years. This game also falls in a (89.3%) system of home teams off a double digit loss to a divisional rival with a .250 to .400 win percentage playing a winning team (25-3 UNDER).

Pick: UNDER 44.5

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Penn State will host Indiana today at 4 EST where the line is around 4. Indiana is not a good road team as they are 10-2 this season with both of their losses coming in their only 2 road games. Penn State is (6-0 ATS) off a double digit loss to a conference opponent and are (7-2 ATS) after failing to cover 3 of their L4 games.

Pick: PENN ST. +4

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The SF 49ers will host the Houston Texans who are off B2B upset wins over JAX and LAC last week where they won 41-29 as a 13 point dog but unfortunately for Houston teams off a SU upset win as a 13+ point dog are (12-26 ATS) over the years. The 49ers will be missing starting QB Jimmy G but even with a rookie backup and the line still being as high as it is tells you a lot. San Francisco is (22-7 ATS) off an upset road loss while the Texans are (0-6 ATS) off B2B wins over the L3 seasons. I expect SF to win this game by 2+ touchdowns.

Pick: SF 49ERS -13.5

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The New Orleans Saints will host the Carolina Panthers at 4:25 EST. The Saints are expected to start Taysom Hill at QB after that gruesome performance by Ian Book on Monday night where we cashed easy on Miami but we will still fade the Saints today even with them getting pieces back on defense. The Panthers are 0-5 SU/ATS in their L5 games however NFL teams off 5 straight ATS losses have covered (60.2%) in the following game and surprisingly the Saints are a terrible (1-5 ATS) at home this year. Grab the points in this divisional matchup.

Pick: CAR PANTHERS +7

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Oklahoma State will take on Notre Dame in the Fiesta bowl at 1 EST in Arizona today. If you look back at both teams L7 games to end the season Notre dame went a perfect 7-0 however only played against 2 bowl eligible teams in V Tech and UNC who both got slaughtered in their bowl games earlier this week with both of them losing by double digits meanwhile OKLA St. played Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Iowa State. Oklahoma State has a stout defense that nobody talks about as they have held opponents to 2.6 yards/rush and 180 passing yards/game. Notre Dame will be missing starting RB K. Williams who had a 1,000+ yards on the ground so back up C. Tyree will get the bulk of the carries who only had 50 rushing attempts this season. The Cowboys are (10-0 ATS) off a loss vs an opponent who is off a SU/ATS win and (6-2 ATS) vs teams with a 62% or higher comp. Percentage this year.

Pick: OKLAHOMA ST PK

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 Utah and Ohio State will play in the Rose Bowl today at 5 EST. Ohio State will be without two of their top 3 WRs so they are going to need some of their younger class to step up which they are more than capable of playing for a powerhouse like Ohio State. The Buckeyes are off a 42-27 defeat to Michigan but tend to bounce back nicely as they are (7-0 ATS) off an upset loss on the road where they failed to cover by 17+ points and are (11-1 ATS) vs opponents with a .600 to .800 win percentage. Yes Utah beat Oregon twice and Ohio State lost to Oregon but that was early in the season and each matchup is different. Utah falls in a (37.2%) system of underdogs 3.5 to 10 that average 6.2+ YPP facing a defense that allows 4.8 to 5.6 YPP (48-81 ATS) L5 seasons with an average score margin of -10.2. Ohio State is also (15-5 ATS) in their L20 games vs the PAC-12. Lay the short number with the Buckeyes.

Pick: OHIO ST. -4

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C. Conn will play @ Rutgers today at 5 EST. We played on C. Conn yesterday as 6 point dogs and cashed for us winning by double digits but were going to switch gears and fade them in this spot. Rutgers should dominate the paint all game long as they have a MASSIVE height advantage with 4 of their starting 5 being 6’6 or taller besides their PG while C. Conn has one player on their whole roster who is 6’6 or bigger, Rutgers ranks #5 in average height compared to C. Conn who is #354. Rutgers also had 17 days off before their last game on the 30th so they are the more rested team in this spot.

Pick: RUTGERS -23.5

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The 5-28 Detroit Pistons will host the 14-20 Spurs at 7 EST tonight. The line is set around 7 for this one and we will lay the points with the Spurs. The Spurs are expected to have Lonie Walker available for this game and PG Dejounte Murray is questionable while the Pistons continue to miss a lot of guys due to protocol. The Spurs fall in a (80.5%) system of road favorites 3.5 to 9.5 after 2 or more consecutive unders with a +/- 3 PPG differential playing a team with a -7 or worse PPG differential (33-8 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Spurs - the points.

Pick: SA SPURS -6.5

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St. Francis NY will host Central Connecticut for an afternoon game at 4 EST. Both teams have 3 wins on the season but C. Conn is (8-5 ATS) and this will be their 6th straight game as an underdog but are (6-1 ATS) after playing as a dog in 3 consecutive games this year and are (15-6 ATS) after playing as a dog in 5 consecutive games over the L3 years. St Francis falls in a bad (25%) system of home teams in a game where both teams shoot 40.5% or worse from the field after allowing a team to shoot 55% or better (13-39 ATS) since ‘97. C conn is also (4-1 ATS) after having lost 2 of their L3 games. I see this being a one possession game that could go either way so grab the points with C. Conn.

Pick: C. CONN +6

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The Mavericks and Kings will play the 2nd game of their B2B where SAC won on a late shot to give them a 95-94 victory on Wednesday but we will fade the Kings today. The Mavericks are missing a lot of guys but the only player they are missing from Wednesday's game is  I.T. The Mavs are (8-1 ATS) off a road loss and are (5-0 ATS) when revenging a same season loss this year. The Kings are a poor (2-8 ATS) after playing 4+ consecutive home games and are (1-4 ATS) off 2+ wins this season. SAC also falls in a bad system of home dogs off a home win by 3 points or less in the 1H of the season (47-81 ATS) since ‘96. Play on Dallas

Pick: DAL MAVERICKS -1

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The Georgia Bulldogs will look to get back in a Natty game for the first time since 2017 when they lost 26-23 to Bama but they will have to go through Michigan first. Georgia had the best defense in the nation holding opponents to 6.9 PPG before BAMA put up 41 against them in the SEC title game but BAMA was in a must win situation while Georgia knew they were in the playoffs regardless of the outcome so it was a weird spot. Georgia still comes into this game with the better defense which puts them in a system of SEC teams with the better PPG allowed vs BIG10 opponents in bowl games (23-10 ATS). Michigan is (2-10 ATS) in road games after a blowout win by 35+ and are (14-26 ATS) as a dog of 3+ points. Take the Bulldogs to win this game by 8 or more.

Pick: GEORGIA -7.5

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The OKC Thunder will host the Knicks tonight who are off 3 straight wins however New York is (5-11 ATS) off a win and are (2-7 ATS) off a road win. OKC has covered 6 straight as an underdog vs the Eastern Conference and are (8-1 ATS) after having lost 3 of their L4 games and (12-5 ATS) as a 3.5 to 10 point dog. Look for the Thunder to keep this game close as I could see them even winning outright to snap the Knicks 3 game win streak as both teams have protocol issues.

Pick: OKC THUNDER +5

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The Washington Wizards will host the Cleveland Cavs at 7 EST tonight. Both teams come into this game missing players due to protocols with the big one being (WAS) Bradley Beal who is questionable. The Cavs have covered 5 in a row as an underdog vs South East opponents and are (6-1 ATS) after having lost 2 of their L3 games including going (9-3 ATS) off a loss. The Wizards are (1-4 ATS) in their L5 home games and are (5-12 ATS) following a game that went over the total. The Wizards also fall in a system of teams revenging a home loss vs opponent as a favorite that is off a cover but failed to win SU as an underdog (159-243 ATS) since ‘96.

Pick: CLE CAVALIERS +3.5

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The Maryland Terrapins will host Brown at 7 EST tonight. Maryland has been a horrible home cover team this year going (1-7 ATS) while Brown is a profitable (6-2 ATS) on the road with covers over UNC where they lost by 7 as 24 point dogs and Colorado where they lost by 2 as 11 point dogs. Brown also comes into this game with the rest advantage since their last game was on the 27th vs CUSE while Maryland played on the 28th however the Terrapins are (1-3 ATS) playing on 1 days rest this season and are (1-6 ATS) in their L7 games following a 20+ point win. Maryland is also (0-4 ATS) as a double digit home favorite. Grab the points with brown.

Pick: BROWN +12.5

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The South Dakota St. Jackrabbits will head to North Dakota to take on the Bison at 8 EST. We will look at the total in this matchup which is set at 153 and we will grab the under in this spot since both teams come into this game off SU wins but failed to cover the spread which puts this game in a (75.4%) under system. When the total is 150 to 159.5 with both teams coming off SU wins but failed to cover the spread the under is (43-14) in the L5 seasons and is (20-3 Under) over the L3 seasons with the average line being 153 and the total points scored being 146.4. Take the Under between S. Dakota St. and N. Dakota St.

Pick: UNDER 153

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 2-10 Oregon State will host 8-4 Utah Utes at 9 EST with the line only favoring Utah by 4. At first glance the play might look to take the Utes however Utah has only played in 2 true road games thus far and played horrible in both of them losing by 20 @ USC as 7.5 point dogs and losing by 8 @ MIZZU as 2.5 point favorites. Utah is a money burning (2-10 ATS) in road games vs teams with a .200 win percentage or lower while Oregon State is (19-9 ATS) in their L28 games as a dog. The Beavers are also (5-1 SU)  in their L6 home games vs Utah, fade the Utes on the road.

Pick: OREGON ST. +4.5

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Maryland and Virginia Tech will play at Yankee Stadium for the Pinstripe bowl at 2:15 EST. Virginia Tech will be without starting QB B. Burmeister and their top 2 wide receivers T. Robinson and T. Turner who accounted for 52% of the teams receptions this season, from a statistical reasoning the Hookies are a poor (1-8 ATS) following a SU win. Maryland falls in a (70.7%) system of favorites 3.5 to 10 off an upset win as a road underdog playing an opponent off a SU win on the road (41-17 ATS) since ‘92 with an average point differential of +11.4.

Pick: MARYLAND -4

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 The Georgia Bulldogs will host Gardner Webb at 7 EST. Both teams come into this game off upset losses as UGA lost by 2 to E. Tenn State as 4 point favorites and G-Webb lost by 1 to NC Central as 8 point favorites but that favors G-Webb in this spot. Georgia falls in a bad system of home favorites 3.5 to 9.5 off a home upset loss as a road favorite (16-43 ATS) since ‘97. Georgia is also (0-6 ATS) as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the L2 seasons while G-Webb is (36-19 ATS) as a road dog.

Pick: GARDENR WEBB +6

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The Grizzlies will host the Lakers who are on a B2B since they played last night in Houston where they cashed for us winning 132-123 but we are going to switch gears and fade them tonight. The Lakers are (1-5 ATS) off a road win and are (3-10 ATS) following an ATS win this season. The Grizzlies have excelled vs Pacific division opponents going (9-2 ATS) this season and the Griz have covered in 5 of their L6 home games vs the Lakers. Take the Grizzlies - the points

Pick: MEM GRIZZLIES -6

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 The New York Knicks will make the first stop on their 4 game road trip in Minnesota to take on the Wolves. Minnesota will still be missing tons of players due to protocol including their starting 5 as of 10 AM EST and are on a B2B since they played last night where they beat the Celtics but those backups aren't used to playing that many minutes so look for fatigue to play a big factor in this one as the Knicks come into this one rested and just missing a handful of guys with majority of their top players active. The Knicks have covered in 21 of their L30 games following 2 consecutive home games. Play on the Knicks tonight. 

Pick: NY KNICKS -4.5

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Both teams in this matchup are coming in on losing streaks as the Rockets have lost 4 straight and the Lakers dropping 5 straight. The Lakers are terrible at covering the number at home going (6-14 ATS) but on the road are just (7-7 ATS) and are the rested team in this matchup which puts them in a trend of rested road favorites off B2B losses (cover 65% since ‘00.) The Lakers also fall in a system of road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset loss playing on 2 days rest (90-49 ATS) since ‘96.

Pick: LA LAKERS -5

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This year's Holiday Bowl will be played at Petco Park in San Diego with NC State and UCLA going at it. NC State appears to come into this game with the stronger defense but UCLA closed out their season strong with 3 blowout wins over Colorado, USC and CAL however that will hurt them in this spot since the Bruins are (9-22 ATS) in road games after 3+ consecutive wins and are a wallet busting (0-10 ATS) in road games following 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. Head Coach for the Wolf Pack Dave Doeren has been at NC State since ‘13 and is (13-5 ATS) off a BYE week and is (4-2 ATS) in bowl games while UCLA’s head coach Chip Kelly is (2-10 ATS) vs teams who average 31+ points/game. Take NC State to win this game by a FG+.

Pick: NC STATE -2

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The Sacramento Kings will host the OKC Thunder at 10 EST tonight. OKC has been a money team this year covering 66% going (22-11 ATS) and are (12-4 ATS) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5. The Kings have failed to cover in 3 of their L4 games which doesn't fare well for them since they are (10-23 ATS) in that situation this season while the Thunder are (16-4 ATS) coming off an ATS win. This will also be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Thunder who are (10-2 ATS) when playing with rest. Take the Thunder + points on the road.

Pick: OKC THUNDER +5.5

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The San Antonio Spurs will host the Jazz who have yet to cover in their L5 games. The Spurs are 4-1 SU/ATS in their L5 but are (1-12 ATS) in home games after having won 3 of their L4 games and are (4-18 ATS) in home games following a win. The Jazz will be without D. Mitchell due to a back injury but I believe Utah still wins this game handily.

Pick: UTAH JAZZ -7

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The Memphis Grizzlies will finish their 3 game road trip in Phoenix tonight at 9 EST. The Suns are coming off a loss to Golden State which favors them today since they are (9-1 ATS) in their L10 games off a loss facing a team with a winning record and off a double digit win. Lay the points with the Suns at home.

Pick: PHX SUNS -8

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The Vikings will play the Rams at 1 EST in Minnesota where the Vikings are home dogs. The Rams come into this game on a 3 game win streak but the Rams are (0-3 ATS) off 3+ wins this season and are (3-11 ATS) off 3+ wins since McVay has been HC of the Rams. The Vikings will be missing RB D. Cook today but backup A. Mattison is good enough to handle the load. The Vikings are (5-2 ATS) as an underdog this season and (38-20 ATS) as a home dog since ‘92. Matthew Stafford also seems to struggle against MIN going (6-13 ATS) in his career. Take the Vikings at home over the Rams.

Pick: MIN VIKINGS +3

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The 2-12 Jaguars will play the 3-11 Jets at 1 EST in New York. The Jets are coming off an OVER game last week which hurts them today as they are (2-11 ATS) coming off an OVER and are (4-16 ATS) off a road cover as a dog, they are also (0-7 ATS) after allowing 25+ points in 3 straight games. The Jags are 1-6 SU on the road but are (3-4 ATS). Take the Jags.

Pick: JAX JAGUARS +2.5

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The Washington Wizards will host the Philadelphia 76ers at 6 EST. The Wizards will be without KCP and star guard B. Beal who is listed as doubtful due to protocols as of 10AM EST. The Wizards are horrible when playing minimal games over a period as they are (1-10 ATS) when playing 3 or less games in a 10 day span and are (20-39 ATS) off 2+ consecutive road wins. The Wizards also fall in a bad system of underdogs off 2 or more consecutive upset wins on the road with a 51 to 60% win percentage (22-55 ATS) since ‘96. Take the 76ers on the road.

Pick: PHI 76ERS -3.5

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The LA Clippers will host the Denver Nuggets at 9 EST. The Clippers will be missing P. George due to an elbow injury today to go along with R. Jackson and M. Morris who are in protocol. The Clippers are (1-10 ATS) in home games when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season and are (3-10 ATS) after having lost 2 of their L3 games. The Nuggets fall in a (68.5%) system of road favorites 3.5 to 9.5 after having lost 2 of their L3 games with a winning percentage between 45 to 55% (63-29 ATS) L5 seasons.

Pick: DEN NUGGETS -4

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The Bucks and Celtics will play in Milwaukee on Christmas day at 2:30 EST. The Celtics beat the Bucks on December 13th (117-103) in Boston which favors the Bucks in this spot since they are (33-19 ATS) when revenging a loss playing at home and are (5-2 ATS) when revenging a double digit loss. The line is where it's at because Giannis is expected to come back today along with Bobby Portis. The Celtics are a poor (2-11 ATS) in road games after 2+ home games over the L2 seasons and are (9-21 ATS) off a home win. Lay the points at home with the Bucks. 

Pick: MIL BUCKS -6.5

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Ball State and Georgia State will meet in the Camellia Bowl played in Alabama at 2:30 EST. This is a MAC vs Sun Belt game and I believe the Sun Belt is one of the more underrated conferences in college football while the MAC is pretty poor. MAC teams are (10-51 SU) and (21-38 ATS) in their L61 bowl games while the Sun Belt has covered 33 of their L55 bowl games. GA ST. almost knocked off Auburn on the road back in September and upset Coastal Carolina as 11 point dogs. GA State is (7-0 ATS) vs teams who complete 62% or worse of their passes and are (6-0 ATS) as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Take the Panthers to win this game by 7+.

Pick: GEORGIA ST. -6

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11-3 Fresno State will travel to Northern Utah to take on 9-3 Weber State at 6 EST. This will be the first time the Bulldogs have to play B2B road games this season and are only playing on one days rest. Weber State has won 12 of their L17 games when the line is +3 to -3 and are (7-3 ATS) when playing at home. Fresno State is (9-21 ATS) in their L30 games vs teams with winning records and that number goes to (3-13 ATS) when playing a team with a 60-80% win percentage. Look for Weber State to bounce back tonight after dropping their L2 games.

Pick: WEBER ST. -1.5

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The New Orleans Pelicans will play @ Orlando against the Magic tonight at 7 EST. The Pelicans fall in two bad systems tonight which is underdogs off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as road dogs playing on B2B days (27-58 ATS) since ‘96, they also fall in a (42%) system of sub .300 teams off 2+ wins if playing at home off a road win. We will continue to fade the Magic at home as they are a dreadful (2-9 ATS) and the Pelicans are (5-2 ATS) in their L7 games as a road favorite of 6 to 12.

Pick: NO PELICANS -6

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 UCF and Florida will square off in Raymond James Stadium for the Gasparilla Bowl at 7 EST. Florida has had a disappointing season going 6-6 and fired HC Dan Mullen a few weeks back. Florida is 2-3 in their L5 games with upset losses to S CAR. where they lost by 23 as 20 point favorites and lost 24-23 to MIZZU as 9 point favorites. We have already seen a few Gator players enter the transfer portal including QB Emory Jones so I feel like the Gators have no motivation in this one while HC for UCF Gus Malzhan and his squad are highly motivated to knock off the bigger school. Just like the BYU & UAB game last Saturday where UAB won 31-28 we are getting the hungrier team catching points.

Pick: UCF +7

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 The Los Angeles Lakers will host the San Antonio Spurs tonight who have been in LA since Monday since they just knocked off the Clippers 116-92. The Lakers are (5-10 ATS) as a home favorite this season and (7-18 ATS) in their L25 games at home vs an opponent with a losing record. The Spurs have covered in 6 of their L7 games as an underdog and have already lost to the Lakers twice this season so they come in with double revenge and the Spurs are (7-3 ATS) in their L10 double revenge games.

Pick: SA SPURS +1.5

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The CAL Bears will host the Pacific Tigers today at 6 EST. Cal has struggled on the road this season going 0-4 SU but luckily for them this game is at home where they are 7-1 SU and (6-2 ATS) while Pacific has yet to cover in a road game going (0-5 ATS). Pacifics best comp all year was UCSB who they actually upset 80-71 as 4 point dogs but that was on their home court while CAL has now won 3 in a row which puts them in a system of home favorites 3.5 to 9.5 from a Power 5 school off 2 straight wins playing an opponent form a 2nd tier conference (99-55 ATS) since ‘97

Pick: CAL BEARS -8.5

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered 13 of their L14 games including covering their L6. Tonight they will head to Boston as 5.5 point dogs. The Celtics are coming off a 108-103 defeat to PHI but Boston is (10-5 ATS) off a loss and (9-4 ATS) after failing to cover. There are inactives on both teams tonight but the big one for me is (CLE) rookie Center E. Mobley who is #2 on the team for minutes/game. The Cavs also fall in a (29.6%) system of road dogs 3.5 to 9.5 with a 60-75% win percentage off a 20+ point win over a divisional rival (18-45 ATS) since ‘96. The Celtics are also (10-2 ATS) after scoring 105 or less.

Pick: BOS CELTICS -5.5

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The 7-4 Southern Utah Thunderbirds will host 7-5 Dixie State at 9 EST tonight. This is a revenge game for the Birds who lost outright to Dixie State 83-76 last season as 10 point favorites. The Birds are coming off a 37 point loss @ Michigan where they shot 33% from the field and 17% from 3. The good news is Dixie State is nowhere near the talent level of Michigan and the Birds are (31-16 ATS) after making less than 20% of their 3pt shots in the previous game. Dixie State also falls in a (21.7%) system of underdogs after scoring 75+ points in 4 straight games playing a DEF that allows 74-78 PPG (10-36 ATS) since ‘97.

Pick: SOUTHERN UTAH -12.5

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The Los Angeles Clippers will head to Sacramento after dropping 3 straight but good news is the Clippers are (10-1 ATS) in road games after failing to cover in 5 of their L7. The Clippers also fall in a system of road teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ and are coming off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as 3+ point favorites (43-16 ATS) L5 seasons. The Kings will be missing D. Fox, D. Mitchell, M Bagley and a few others but the Kings are (9-19 ATS) in home games after failing to cover the spread. 

Pick: LA CLIPPERS -5.5

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The Bellarmine Knights will host Loyola Marymount at 7 EST. The Lions are coming off a 5 point loss but covered the 6.5 @ NEVADA however Loyola is (0-3 ATS) off an ATS cover this season and (1-5 ATS) as a favorite. This could also be a look ahead spot for the Lions since they have #4 Gonzaga on deck. Bellarmine has played well against some stiff competition this year covering @ st. Marys, on the road vs UCLA and beat Miami (OH) outright as 9 point dogs. Fade Loyola on the road in this spot.

Pick: BELLARMINE +3

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The San Diego State Aztecs and UTSA Road Runners will play in the Frisco Bowl at 7:30 EST. The key factor for me in this game is that the nations #6 leading rusher with 1,500 yards Sincere McCormick will miss today's game who was responsible for 30% of UTSA’s total yards and 60% of their rushing attack. The Aztecs have held opponents to 19.5 PPG so without the Road Runners top weapon I see them struggling to move the ball today. The Aztecs are (16-6 ATS) off a double digit loss and are (4-0 ATS) following a game that went Over the total this season. Play on San Diego State. 

Pick: SDSU -3

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The Miami Heat will host the Indiana Pacers at 7:30 EST. The Heat are plagued with inactives tonight as J. Butler, Bam, Oladipo, C. Martin, P.J. Tucker are all OUT with Tyler Herro being a GTD with his quad injury. The Pacers are relatively healthy as they are expecting to get Brogdon back but TJ McConnell and Warren will be OUT. The Pacers come into this game with revenge since they fell 113-104 to the Heat at home earlier this month but are (9-4 ATS) in revenge games this season and (4-0 ATS) in revenge games if they were beaten as a home favorite in the previous meeting. Lay the short number with the healthier team in this spot. 

Pick: IND PACERS ML

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The Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks will play the 2nd game of their B2B with this one being played in Dallas. The Mavs have been a wallet busting (19-33 ATS) in home games over the L2 seasons and are (4-9 ATS) this season. The Wolves will be without Edwards, Beverley, Vanderbilt and Okogie but the Mavs are also missing some key pieces with Luka, Bullock, Kleber and possibly Porzingis who is questionable. D’angelo Russel has been straight money when he has been on the court going (12-3 ATS) in his L15 games he's played and the Mavs fall in a bad system of home dogs who average 104-108 PPG after scoring 105 or less in B2B games now playing a DEF that allows 108-114 PPG (12-41 ATS). Play on the T-Wolves.

Pick: MIN T-WOLVES +1.5

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Georgia State and Georgia Tech will square off in Phoenix Arizona tonight. GA Tech has lost 4 straight + ATS but all were against top teams in Wisconsin, UNC, LSU and USC so this will be a big dropoff in competition. GA State has struggled on the road going (1-5 ATS) and average 7 points less than they do in all their games combined. The Panthers are also coming off a “no-lined” game and the last time they did that they got blown out as 9 point dogs to Miss. St. 79-50, look for GA Tech to roll tonight.

Pick: GA TECH -5

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The OKC Thunder will play the Grizzlies in Memphis at 8:10 EST. OKC lost 3 straight before upsetting the Clippers on Saturday which favors them since they are (9-1 ATS) after having lost 2 of their L3 games and are (12-4 ATS) following an  ATS win this season. Most people remember the previous meeting between these teams where Memphis had the biggest blowout of the year winning 152-79 on DEC 2nd but the Thunder are (10-2 ATS) revenging a road loss vs opponents this year. This will also be the Thunders 2nd game in 5 days while the Grizzlies have played 2 games in the L3 days. Take the rested Thunder with revenge on the road tonight + points.

Pick: OKC THUNDER +9

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 6-3 Manhattan will square off with Charleston Southern in the Citadel Classic being played at McAlister Field House which is Charleston So. home court even though it's listed as a :neutral site” game. Manhattan hasn't played since DEC 11th which does not do them good since they struggle on extended rest going (10-22 ATS) on 7+ days rest and are (3-8 ATS) in their L11 December games. Charleston Southern has had a tough schedule playing @ OLE MISS, @ WAKE, @ GA TECH and @ CLEMSON where they were 20+ point dogs in all those fights. I believe Manhattan is laying too many in this spot as I see it being around a 5 point game. Grab the points with Charleston Southern.

Pick: CHARLESTON SO. +8.5

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The 20-9 Utah Jazz will host the 16-16 Charlotte Hornets at 9:10 EST. Both teams come into this game off B2B SU/ATS losses but the Jazz are 2-0 SU/ATS in this spot with an average cover margin of +14.5 points while the Hornets are 3-3 ATS. This will be the Hornets 5th straight road game and they are playing on B2B days which does not favor them since they are (1-5 ATS) on B2B’s this season. On the other hand the Jazz have been at home for over a week and will be until the day after Christmas. The Jazz are 5-0 in their L5 meetings with the Hornets with an average margin of victory of +14.4 points. Take the Jazz to bounce back with a convincing win tonight.

Pick: UTA JAZZ -11

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The New York Jets will travel to Miami for a 1PM start. The Dolphins have been money as of late winning + covering in their L5 games but we will look to fade them at home today. Miami falls in a (23.7%) system of home favorites after 3 or more consecutive covers with a 40-49% win percentage playing a losing team in the 2H of the season (9-29 ATS) since ‘83, this system is also (8-1 ATS) since 2011. Take the sorry Jets + the points.

Pick: NY JETS +10.5

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 The Jacksonville Jaguars will play their first game without coach Urban Meyer since he got fired early this week. And rumors say MULTIPLE players called their agents afterwards saying their fine staying in Jacksonville since they wanted out when Meyer was there. In recent years we've seen teams rally behind interim coaches in their first gig and I believe we see that today with the Jags at home. The Texans will be without both starting guards and 5 defensive starters including some depth guys. The Jaguars are (9-1 ATS) after scoring 6 points or less in their previous game.

Pick: JAX JAGUARS -5

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The DET Lions will host the Cardinals after their upset loss to the Rams on primetime. The Lions are 1-11 but (8-5 ATS) covering 4 of their L5. The Lions are (4-0 ATS) after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and are (5-0 ATS) after scoring 14 points or less this season. The Cardinals are a perfect (7-0 ATS) on the road but have never laid double digits so I believe this line is a little too inflated for them to cover today. Grab the points with Dan Campbell and the Lions. 

Pick: DET LIONS +13

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Nebraska will host the Kansas St. Wildcats at 6EST tonight. Nebraska will most likely be missing some key pieces with Forward D. Walker who is a top 3 scorer/rebounder and another Forward in W. Breidenbach. K State is (5-1 ATS) in their L6 road games while the Cornhuskers are a money burning (1-9 ATS) in their L10 December games. Kansas State also falls in a system of road teams after a cover as a double digit favorite playing on 5-6 days rest (156-98 ATS) since ‘97. 

Pick: KANSAS ST. -1

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UTEP and Fresno St. will meet in the “New Mexico Bowl” at 2:15 EST. They have Fresno favored by 11 to 12 points at most books and that is way too many points to lay with a Mountain West team in a non conference matchup. The Bulldogs have only played one game where they were 10 to 20 point favorites and squeaked by Hawaii 27-24 back in October. UTEP is (6-2 ATS) in their L8 games with 2 weeks off while Fresno St. is (1-3 ATS) in their L4 games with 2 weeks off and are (1-6 ATS) following a road win. I believe Fresno St. wins this game but not by double digits, grab the points with UTEP.

Pick: UTEP +11.5

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UAB and BYU will play in the “Independence Bowl” hosted in Shreveport, Louisiana. I doubt BYU even wants to play in this shit bowl after going 10-2 with one of their losses coming against the BIG 12 Champion Baylor Bears but UAB is the type of program that gets up for these games so we are getting the hungrier team catching points in this spot. BYU was just (1-5 ATS) away from home this season while UAB was (6-1 ATS). The Cougars are also just (2-5 ATS) in their L7 bowl games. Take the points with UAB.

Pick: UAB +6.5

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The red hot NE Patriots will travel to Indianapolis to take on the 7-6 Colts. Don't let the Colts mediocre record fool you as they are (6-2) in their L8 games and (7-3 ATS) in their L10. The Colts have covered 9 of their L10 games following a divisional matchup while the Patriots fall in a (22%) system of teams off an upset win over a divisional rival as an underdog playing on Saturday (9-32 ATS) since 1980. In addition to that stat underdogs playing with 10+ days rest off a division win and have covered in 3+ straight games are (1-13 ATS) since 1980. Take the Colts - the points in what appears to be a weird line. 

Pick: IND COLTS -2.5

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3-5 Portland St. will play at 3-6 CSUN tonight at 10 EST. CSUN lost 3 straight games failing to cover in all 3 as well but I expect them to put together a good game tonight on their home court over Portland St. CSUN is (5-1 ATS) in their L6 games as a home underdog and only scored 25 points in the 1H of their last game but are (8-2 ATS) after scoring 25 or less in the 1H of their previous game. This puts CSUN in a system of home teams after 2 straight losses by 10+ points and scoring 30 or less in the 1H of their previous game (127-70 ATS). Grab the points with Cal State Northridge tonight.

Pick: CS NORTHRIDGE +3

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6-4 Liberty will take on 8-4 East Carolina in a neutral site game played in Charlotte. The Pirates came into this game off B2B wins over Gardner Webb and NC A&T which should favor them today since they are (4-0 ATS) after 2+ consecutive SU wins. Liberty is coming off a no-lined game where they won but have struggled vs teams with winning records this season going (1-4 ATS) and are terrible away from home going 1-4 SU and (0-5 ATS) with upset losses to Manhattan and SF Austin. According to my strength of schedule power ratings ECU has had the tougher schedule and has the better record but are catching in points in this spot, take ECU as I believe the wrong team is favored.

Pick: EAST CAROLINA +3

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The Minnesota T-Wolves will host the Lakers tonight who will be missing R. Westbrook, A. Bradley, D. Howard, M. Monk and T. Horton-Tucker. The Wolves have won and covered their L2 games which is no surprise since D. Russell is back and is now (10-3 ATS) in games he's played this season, without him the Wolves are (3-12 ATS). On the other side the Lakers have won and covered 3 straight games but are (5-10 ATS) after 1 win, (1-5 ATS) after 2 wins and (0-1 ATS) after 3 wins this season so I expect their win streak to come to an end tonight in Minnesota. The Lakers are also (2-5 ATS) on Friday nights this year, take the healthy Wolves team over the Lakers tonight.

Pick: MIN T-WOLVES -2

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The 6-3 San Diego State Aztecs will host 10-3 St Mary's at 10 EST. The Aztecs have struggled shooting the ball making just 41% of their shots and 29% from deep, they have also struggled vs the better teams since they are (1-4 ATS) vs teams with winning records. These teams met last year and SDSU won in a blowout winning 74-49 but the Aztecs are returning just 1 starter from that squad while the Gaels returned all 5 starters so this is a big revenge game for them. The Aztecs fall in a bad system of home underdogs playing with 7+ days rest in December (47-89 ATS) L5 seasons. Take St Mary's on the road tonight. 

Pick: ST MARYS -3

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The College of Charleston will play @ Stetson to take on the Hatters at 7 EST. Charleston is 3-1 SU/ATS in their L4 games but are (0-6 ATS) after having won 3 of their L4 games. Charleston also has some issues dealing with the flu as (Forward) John Means is questionable who averages 14.1 PPG and 5 rebounds. he also leads the team in minutes played, other players that are also questionable is (Forward) Babacar Faye who averages 19 minutes/game and their only listed (center) Osinachi Smart. If these guys don't play Stetson will have a huge advantage down low, Stetson is 2-4 in their L6 games but are (14-4 ATS) after having lost 4 or 5 of their L6 games and are (23-12 ATS) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog. Take Stetson + the points.

Pick: STETSON +5.5

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UNC Greensboro will play at MD-Baltimore County at 7 EST tonight. This will be the 3rd straight road game for UNC Greensboro while UMBC returns home after losing 3 straight on the road to Delaware, G-Town and Princeton but are 4-0 in home games following a road loss. UMBC is also (15-8 ATS) when the line is +3 to -3 but that number jumps to (7-1 ATS) when playing at home. Greensboro shot 52% from the field last game but are (0-3 ATS) after shooting 45+% this season. Take UMBC - the points.

Pick: UMBC -2

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South Dakota will host 4-6 Bellarmine tonight at 8 EST. Bellarmine is off 3 straight wins by 10+ points but all those came in “no-lined” games so in other words they were practically playing high school caliber teams. Bellarmine then falls in a (25%) system of road teams off 2+ consecutive home wins by 10+ points with a 20-40% win percentage (12-36 ATS). Bellarmine has also struggled on the road this season going 1-6 SU and (2-4-1 ATS). Take South Dakota who is 5-0 SU at home and 3-0 if you take out the no-lined games. 

Pick: S. DAKOTA -1

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 Florida St. and Lipscomb both come into this game off 3+ consecutive losses. Florida St. has lost 2 straight games as 6+ point favorites but are (9-1 ATS) as a double digit favorite off B2B upset losses and are (36-17 ATS) after 3+ consecutive losses. Lipscomb is (4-12 ATS) in their L16 non conference games while Florida State falls in a (68.6%) system of favorites of 10+ points off 2 consecutive losses as a favorite against an opponent off a home loss (70-32 ATS) since ‘97. Lay the huge number with the Seminoles at home.

Pick: FLORIDA ST. -20.5

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Utah St. will play in their 2nd true road game this year since they played @ BYU on the 8th and lost by 11 as 6 point dogs. Weber State is picking up where they left off last season when they went 16-7 and this year they are 9-1 with 4 returning starters. Weber St. has also been great at covering the number going (17-8 ATS) in their L25 including (10-1 ATS) in non conference games. When the line is +3 to -3 Utah State is a poor (4-9 ATS) while Weber State is (12-4 ATS) and (7-0 ATS) after scoring 80+ points in their previous game. Take Weber St. on the short number.

Pick: WEBER STATE +2.5

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The T-Wolves will travel to Denver to play the Nuggets at 6:10 EST.. There is a crazy trend in this series which is the road team has covered 17 of the L20 games since 2016 and is (7-0 ATS) in the L7 meetings. The T-Wolves were on a 5 game skid until they beat the Blazers on Sunday night and part of that is due to getting D. Russell back since the T-Wolves are (9-3 ATS) in their L12 games with Russell in the lineup. This will also just be the 2nd game in 5 days for Minnesota while the Nuggets should be fatigued since this will be their 6th game in 10 days and are (1-5 ATS) in this situation this season. I see this being a one possession game that could go either way.

Pick: MIN T-WOLVES +4.5

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 7-3 Furman Paladins will play at North Carolina to take on the Tar Heels. Furman has failed to cover in 6 straight games which will give them a slightly inflated line tonight vs UNC. The Tar Heels are terrible at covering double digit spreads going (2-10 ATS) in their L12 and are (0-4 ATS) this season. The Paladins have found success on offense shooting 47% and are averaging 84 PPG which should be enough to keep this game within single digits. Fade UNC as 10 point favorites tonight. 

Pick: FURMAN +10

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Houston is coming off a 1 point loss to BAMA that ended in a very controversial call since it appeared to be a goal tending at the buzzer but didn’t review the play as the refs ran off the court right as the clock hit 0 which caused Houston players to follow them into the tunnel and in my opinion BAMA was getting all the calls that game. Screw the stats on this one as I see Houston coming out the gates pissed on their home court against a bad Ragin Cajuns team. Houston is (9-3 ATS) off a SU loss, lay the points with Houston as I see them winning by 30+.

Pick: HOUSTON -23

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 3-6 Sam Houston St. will play at North Texas to take on the 5-3 Mean Green. N. Texas has rattled off 3 straight wins while Sam Houston is coming off a 5 point loss. N. Texas fares very well in this favorite role going (10-0 ATS) as a double digit favorite over the L3 years and are (21-7 ATS) after allowing 60 points or less in the previous game. Sam Houston falls in a (1-12 ATS) system involving certain teams after allowing 5 or less offensive rebounds in their previous game, they also shoot 55% form the FT line which is bottom in the nation ranking #360. Take North Texas to dominate this game on both ends of the court.

Pick: NORTH TEXAS -11

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The Charlotte Hornets will square off with the Mavericks who are on a B2B after playing yesterday in OKC. The Mavericks are terrible at covering the spread in home games going (3-8-1 ATS) and are (1-3 ATS) when playing on B2B days this season. The Hornets have lost 2 of their L3 games but play well in this spot going (25-12 ATS) while the Mavs have lost 4 of their L6 games but are (1-12 ATS) in that situation over the L2 years. The Hornets are (31-15 ATS) in their L46 games vs teams who average 108 or less points/game. Fade the Mavericks at home off a B2B with travel. 

Pick: CHA HORNETS +2.5

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The Milwaukee Bucks will travel 200 miles to play @ Boston vs the Celtics tonight. The Celtics last played on the 10th so they come into this game on 2 days rest while the Bucks played yesterday in New York which does not help since they are (3-10 ATS) in their L13 games on no days rest. Jaylen Brown is expected to be back tonight which will provide the Celtics with a much needed scoring boost. The Celtics are (9-1 ATS) after having lost 4 of their L5 games while the Bucks are (2-11 ATS) off 2 or more consecutive road wins, the Celtics are also (3-0) in the L3 meetings at home vs the Bucks Take the Celtics with a rest advantage at home tonight.

Pick: BOS CELTICS +1.5

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The Dallas Cowboys will head East to take on the Washington Redskins at 1EST. In the Cowboys 6 road games thus far they have a +1.83 avg score margin compared to +12.5 at home. The Redskins have won + covered  4 straight games and are in a good spot today as conference underdogs of 7 points or less are (64-33 ATS). The Cowboys still have one of the worst defenses in terms of yards/game allowing 372.5 and have given up 400+ yards in their L3 games which puts them in a (1-5 ATS) trend. Last week the Redskins upset the Raiders as a small dog and are (8-1 ATS) off an upset win under coach Rivera and that record goes to (5-0 ATS) when off 2+ upset wins. Dallas also ranks dead last in penalty yards/game with 70.9, grab the points with the Redskins. Washington just announced they will be missing a handful of defensive players due to Illness last minute but we will still take the points with Washington.

Pick: WAS REDSKINS +6.5

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The Seattle Seahawks will travel to Houston to play the 2-10 Texans. Seattle is favored by 9.5 points which is way too many for a Seahawks team that is struggling to score and are coming off an upset win at home over a divisional rival. Since R. Wilson came back they are averaging 14.5 PPG which is not much better than Houston's 13.7 PPG this season and Seattle has a - scoring margin which puts them in a small system of NFL teams with a -.25 scoring margin or worse playing as a road favorite of 7 points or more vs an opponent off a 7+ point loss (0-16 ATS). The Seahawks are also (0-7 ATS) in road games in the 2nd half of the season over the L2 years. Houston falls in another system of underdogs 3.5 to 10 points that average less than 14 PPG vs a defense that gives up 18+ PPG and have scored 14 or less in B2B games (54-22 ATS).

Pick: HOU TEXANS +9

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The Denver Broncos will host the DET Lions who are coming off their first win of the year but we will fade them today. Denver is coming off a 22-9 loss to KC but I'm looking for them to bounce back since they are (26-11 ATS) in home games off a loss to a divisional rival and are (10-2 ATS) after scoring 14 or less over the L3 seasons. The Lions fall in a (37%) system of teams off an upset win over a divisional rival at home now playing on the road vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Lay the big number with the Broncos.

Pick: DEN BRONCOS -11.5

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 The BUF Bills will head south to play TB12 and the Bucs at 4:25 EST. Buffalo has been great on defense but they lost star CB T. White a couple weeks ago but it didn't show last week since they only had to defend the pass 3 times but I'm looking for their defense to take a big step back vs TB. On the other side the Bucs passing defense has been below average allowing teams to complete 67.2% of their passes and rank #20 in passing yards/game. I see this game being a shootout that could land somewhere in the 60’s. The Bills are (8-1 OVER) following a divisional game and the Bucs are (11-2 OVER) following a double digit win. Take the Over.

Pick: OVER 52.5

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New Mexico St. will travel to Loyola Marymount for a 7PM EST matchup. They have the Lions listed as small home favorites which favors them since they are (8-2 ATS) when listed as PK to -2.5 and are (5-0 ATS) when playing at home. The Aggies are coming off B2B road games but unfortunately for them they are (3-8 ATS) after playing in B2B road games and are (4-12 ATS) following a SU win. The Aggies have struggled against teams that can shoot well since they are (6-16 ATS) vs teams that make 45+% of their shots and are (1-3 ATS) this season. Loyola is also returning all 5 starters from last year and brought in some big players via transfer portal. Look for the Lions experience to give them an edge, take Loyola on the short number.

Pick: LOYOLA MARYMOUNT -1

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 The Utah Jazz will travel to Washington to take on the Wizards at 7 EST. The Jazz have won 6 straight coming into this game while the Wizards are 2-4 in their L6. In the Jazz 6 game winning streak they have won by an average of +17.67 PPG and seem to stay hot since they are (64-41 ATS) off a SU win and are (31-14 ATS) vs Eastern conference opponents. We have played on the Wizards at home a lot this year but they look to be outmatched in this spot vs a hot Jazz team. The Wizards fall in a bad system of underdogs 3.5 to 9.5 after trailing their L3 games by 5+ points at the half now facing an opponent after scoring 115+ points in B2B games (13-35 ATS). Take Utah - the points.

Pick: UTAH JAZZ -7

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Old Dominion will host VCU at 8EST tonight. The Monarchs have covered 3 straight and won their L2 games by double digits which puts them in a system of home dogs off B2B double digit road wins (25-6 ATS). The Home team in this series has covered in 7 of the L9 meetings. VCU is (5-11 ATS) following a SU win and the Monarchs are a much better team at home making 48% of their shots. Take Old Dominion at home + the points.

Pick: OLD DOMINION +5.5

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Elon will travel to North Carolina to take on the 6-2 Tar Heels. UNC is favored by 20+ points in this matchup but are a poor cover team when laying double digits going (3-12 ATS) in their L15 while Elon is (9-1 ATS) in their L10 games as a double digit road dog. UNC is also (0-8-1 ATS) off 3+ wins and Elon is (12-0 ATS) off B2B wins when getting 10+ points in the following game. Take Elon to cover this huge number.

Pick: ELON +21

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The Sacramento Kings will head to Cleveland after losing 124-123 last night in Charlotte. The Cavs also played yesterday where they won 123-106 @ Minnesota but will return home for today's matchup. Both teams are playing on no days rest which favors the Kings since they are (20-10 ATS) in their L30 games on no days rest while the Cavs are (14-16 ATS). The Kings have been a great road dog team going (40-23 ATS) and that number jumps to (11-1 ATS) when listed from +6 to +9.5. The Kings also fall in a system of underdogs 3.5 to 9.5 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115+ points (75-37 ATS). Take the King's + the points.

Pick: SAC KINGS +6.5

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Utah State will host New Orleans at 9 EST tonight. Utah State is listed as 20 point favorites over the Privateers but for good reason. Utah State has dropped 2 straight games to St. Mary's and BYU but that puts them in a (71%) system of teams off B2B SU losses, laying 15+ points at home with a winning record. The Aggies also play well in the big favorite role going (8-2 ATS) when laying double digits including (5-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 18-24 points. Utah State is also a perfect (9-0 ATS) off B2B losses and are laying more than 12 points in the following game. Take Utah State - the points.

Pick: UTAH ST. -19.5

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The 14-12 Cavaliers will play the 11-14 T-Wolves in Minnesota at 8 EST. The Cavaliers are 5-5 SU/8-2 ATS in their L10 games while the T-Wolves have been struggling going 1-4 ATS/SU in their L5. The cavs are (10-2 ATS) following a SU win this season and are (9-3 ATS) on the road while the T-Wolves are (6-9 ATS) at home. Cleveland falls in a system of road favorites off a double digit win over a divisional rival against an opponent off a double digit home loss (68-26 ATS) since ‘96. Take the Cavs on the small number.

Pick: CLE CAVALIERS PK

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DePaul will travel to Louisville for a matchup at 8EST. Louisville is coming off an ATS/SU win over NC State but are (5-12-1 ATS) off an ATS win since ‘20. DePaul is (16-6 ATS) in non conference games over the L3 seasons and are (7-1 ATS) in their L8 while the Cardinals are (10-13 ATS) in non conference games. Louisville ranks #250 in turnover % while DePaul ranks in the top 50 so look for the Blue Demons to get some fast break points and have a small advantage around the rim with Yor Anei and Nick Ongenda. I see Louisville winning this game by 2 possessions giving DePaul the cover. 

Pick: DEPAUL +7.5

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 2-6 Wisconsin Green Bay will travel to 4-4 Kansas City to take on the Kangaroos. The Roos are (13-3 ATS) off a home win over the L3 seasons and are (10-2 ATS) after allowing 50 points or less. Green Bay is coming off a big loss 82-58 which puts them in a bad situation of road dogs 3.5 to 9.5 off a home loss by 20+ points against an opponent off a 20+ point home win (21-49 ATS) L5 seasons. Green Bay is also shooting 40.2% from the field ranking #310 while the Roos are 48% from the field. I expect Green Bay to struggle to keep up with Kansas City tonight.

Pick: UMKC -8

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0-8 Prairie View A&M will travel to Idaho to take on the Boise State Broncos at 9EST. Prairie View falls in a (73%) system of road underdogs after 7 or more consecutive losses playing with 7+ days rest (51-19 ATS) since ‘97. Prairie View is also (5-1 ATS) in their L6 games with 7+ days rest and are (7-2-1 ATS) after allowing 75+ points in B2B games. Boise State is not that great of an offensive team averaging 65 PPG so look for them to struggle to cover this big spread.

Pick: PRAIRE VIEW A&M +15.5

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7-1 Monmouth Hawks will travel to New York to take on 6-2 St. Johns. Monmouth has been straight cash this year going (8-0 ATS) but we will fade them in this spot as this will be their 4th straight road game and Monmouth is (0-6 ATS) after 3 consecutive road games over the L2 seasons. St. Johns has failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games but favorites after failing to cover in 4+ games facing an opponent who HAS covered in 4+ consecutive games are (111-67 ATS) since ‘97. Take St Johns to win by double digits at home tonight.

Pick: ST JOHNS -8

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8-1 grand Canyon will travel just 8 miles south to take on Arizona state at 9:30 EST. Grand Canyon are 4.5 point underdogs in this game which favors them since GCU is (7-0 ATS) in their L7 games as an underdog and Arizona State is (2-10 ATS) as a home favorite. ASU is also (0-7 ATS) vs teams that make 8 or more 3PT shots/game and are (1-10 ATS) vs teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Over the last 3 years Arizona State has been a wallet busting (21-41 ATS), fade Arizona State tonight.

Pick: GRAND CANYON +3.5

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 1-11 Coppin State will travel to D.C. to take on 2-8 George Washington at 6:30 EST. We will look at the total in this matchup that is around 141 and we will jump on the Under. Both teams fall in a system that has cashed (78.6%) since ‘97 which is games where the total is 140-149.5 and both teams are coming off 4+ consecutive losses and have win percentages below 20% (44-12 UNDER). Coppin State is (11-1 UNDER) after allowing 80+ points in B2B games and George Washington is (8-1 UNDER) after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog. I believe we see a total score land somewhere in the 130’s, take the Under.

Pick: UNDER 145

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 4-4 Eastern Washington will travel to Colorado and play the Buffaloes at 8EST. This line is set at 15 and I believe E. Washington is getting too many points in this spot to pass up. The Eagles are (12-4 ATS) in their L16 road games and are (9-2 ATS) in road games when facing a team with a winning record. Colorado is 6-3 SU but are just (2-7 ATS) and are (1-6 ATS) as a favorite. They also fall in a bad system of home teams off a home loss where they scored 60 points or less facing an opponent off a road game where they scored 75+ points (67-120 ATS) since ‘97. Play on Eastern Washington + the points.

Pick: EASTERN WASHINTON +16.5

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Ohio State will square off with Towson St. tonight at 9 EST. The Buckeyes have been hot as of late getting an upset win over coach K’s men and a double digit win in Happy Valley over Penn State but we will fade them in this let up spot with Wisconsin on deck. Towson just played on the 6th getting an upset win over Kent St. as 6 point dogs but are (8-1 ATS) when playing 2 road games in 3 days and are (16-5 ATS) in road games off an upset win. Ohio State falls in a (22.9%) system of home favorites 10-19.5 that have made 47+% of their shots facing a team who held their previous opponent to 33% or less (8-27 ATS). Towson is (3-0 ATS) on the road and (5-0 ATS) if you include neutral site games. Play on Towson St. + the points.

Pick: TOWSON +15

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 6-2 Furman will travel to face off with Winthrop at 7 EST. We will be looking at the total in this matchup which is listed at 153. Both teams combined are (11-2 OVER) this season and Winthrop is averaging 165 total points/game in home games while Furman is averaging 160 total points/game on the road. Furman falls in a system of games when the total is 150-159.5 after a home game where both teams scored 75+ points now facing an opponent off a double digit loss as a road favorite (25-4 OVER). Winthrop also falls in a system of games when the total is 150-159.5 involving two defenses that allow 45+ FG% after a game where they shot 20% or worse from 3 (42-13 OVER) since ‘97. Take the Over

Pick: OVER 153.5

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The Charlotte 49ers will make their way to Arkansas to face the undefeated Razorbacks at 9 EST. Charlotte is coming off a nice 7 point win over George Washington but are (2-10 ATS) in road games following a SU win. Arkansas should be able to put the ball in the hoop at will today as Charlotte ranks #280 in defense efficiency and Arkansas ranks #27 in offense efficiency shooting 56.6% from inside the arc. The Razorbacks fall in a system of home favorites 10 - 19.5 from a major division 1-A conference playing an opponent from a mid division 1-A conference off a home win where they scored 85+ points (225-146 ATS) since ‘97. Lay the bunch of points with Arkansas at home tonight.

Pick: ARKANSAS -18

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The Boston Celtics will meet with the Lakers in the Staples Center tonight at 10 EST. Boston is coming off an upset win over the Blazers as 1.5 point underdogs which puts them in a (64%) system of road teams off an upset win in December (87-49 ATS) L5 seasons. The Lakers have been a horrible cover team at home going (4-11 ATS) this season and are (5-17 ATS) vs Atlantic division opponents since LeBron joined the Lakers. The last time these teams met the Celtics won 130-108 back on November 19th as 1 point home dogs. J. Brown is questionable tonight with his hamstring issue but even if he does not play I still like the Celtics tonight. Take Boston + the points on the road.

Pick: BOS CELTICS +2.5

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New Mexico State Aggies and the New Mexico Lobos will meet again after they just played back on November 30 where the Lobos won 101-94 as 10 point dogs on the road. This matchup will be played @ New Mexico where the Aggies are 4 point favorites even though the Lobos have won 3 straight meetings. We will look to back the Aggies in this spot playing with triple revenge and they are also good in the small favorite role going (6-1 ATS) as a 3-6.5 point favorite. For the Lobos they are (1-9-1 ATS) as a 3-6.5 point underdog and are (3-9-1 ATS) after a SU win. This will also be the Lobos 8th straight game as an underdog but are (0-8 ATS) after playing 7 straight games as a dog. Play on the NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES -4.

Pick: NEW MEXICO STATE -4.5

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The Washington Wizards will travel to Indiana from Toronto since they are playing B2B road games on B2B days, they lost to the raptors 102-90 last night while the Pacers have had 2 days off. We’ve been on the Wizards a decent amount this year when they are @ home but they are just (4-8 ATS) on the road. The Pacers are 1-3 ATS in their L4 games but are (4-1 ATS) after failing to cover in 3 of their L4 games. The Pacers lost @ WAS 135-134 back on October 22 but that puts them in a (65%) system of teams revenging a loss vs opponent who is coming off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite (102-55 ATS) L5 seasons. Take the Pacers as this line should get a ton of action on the Wizards. 

Pick: IND PACERS -5.5

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The Arizona Cardinals will head to Soldier field to play the Bears at 1EST. The Bears have had 9 days to rest since their last game was on Thanksgiving and the Bears are also (8-3 ATS) when playing with 9+ days rest. Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins will be active for this game but I expect them to have a tough time getting in a rhythm early which does not fare well when you have to lay a touchdown +. NFL teams off an upset win over a divisional opponent by 10+ points are (186-244 ATS) since 1980. The Cardinals are also (1-8 ATS) after out-gaining their previous opponent by 100+ yards under coach Kingsbury. Take a shot with the Bears at home today.

Pick: CHI BEARS +7.5

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The Redskins will travel to Sin City to take on the Raiders. The Raiders are playing on 9 days rest since their last game was on Thanksgiving but typically they don't fare well on extended rest going (2-6 ATS) with 9+ days off and are off a close road win by 3 points but are (6-17 ATS) off a road win by 3 points or less since ‘92 and are (26-50 ATS) off an upset road win. The Redskins have won and covered in 3 straight games keeping their playoff hopes alive and coach Rivera is (22-7 ATS) off an upset win as an underdog. The Raiders also fall in a bad system of teams averaging 255+ passing yards/game after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 consecutive games (17-47 ATS) L5 seasons. Road NFC teams playing @ AFC opponents are (23-10-1 ATS) this season cashing (69.1%). Play on the Redskins today in Vegas.

Pick: WAS REDSKINS +2

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San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will square off in Seattle for a NFC West matchup. These teams are going in opposite directions with the 49ers winning and covering in their L3 games while the Seahawks are 0-3 SU/ATS in their L3 games but NFL home underdogs entering off 3 consecutive losses are (30-11 ATS) vs teams off 3+ consecutive wins. The Seahawks also fall in a similar situation as the Chargers but this one is (84.6%) which is HOME teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive losses ATS vs an opponent who HAS covered in 2+ games (22-4 ATS) over the L10 seasons. Play on the Seahawks at home over the 49ers.

Pick: SEA SEAHAWKS +3

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 The chiefs and broncos will meet on Sunday Night football for an AFC West showdown where the Chiefs are big favorites and for good reason. The Broncos are (21-39 ATS) off a home win over a divisional rival and fall in a bad system of road underdogs off a upset win by 14+ points with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season (11-36 ATS) with an average point differential of 12 points since ‘83. The Chiefs are (8-2 ATS) in their L10 meetings with DEN, the Broncos also have some questionables in the trenches today and will be without starting RB M. Gordon in this one. Lay the points with the chiefs off a BYE week at home.

Pick: KC CHIEFS -8

Penn State will host the Ohio State Buckeyes who are coming off a huge emotional game upsetting Duke at home but we will look to fade them today on the road. NCAA teams off an upset win over Duke are (14-25 ATS) in their following game and are (1-8 ATS) when listed as a road favorite of -3 to -10. Fade Ohio State off their big win.

Pick: PENN ST. +5

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The Michigan Wolverines will host the San Diego State Aztecs at 1PM EST. Both these teams have had disappointing starts to the season but the Aztecs are the far worse team in this spot, you can't tell by looking at their recent scores since they blew out Georgetown but against a good defense (which Michigan has) they put up less than 20 points in the 1st half vs USC. In past years the big 10 has dominated the Mountain West as Mountain West underdogs of 8+ are (0-23 SU) and (8-15 ATS). SDSU ranks #287 in effective FG% and #316 in 3P%, they also rank #297 in FT% so they will struggle to put up points on this Michigan team today who ranks top 50 in defense. I expect the Wolverines to win this game by double digits at home, lay the points with Michigan.

Pick: MICHIGAN -8.5

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 William & Mary will head to North Carolina to take on the 5-2 Davidson Wildcats at 3EST.  William & Mary have yet to cover a spread this year while the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS which makes this a good time to jump on the Tribe as this line should be slightly inflated. Davidson is (0-5 ATS) in their L5 games as a favorite of -15 or more and fall in a (28%) system of favorites after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games with a win percentage between 60-80% playing a team with a winning percentage below 20% (16-41 ATS) since ‘97. Grab the points with the Tribe in this one.

Pick: WILLIAM & MARY +19.5

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Appalachian St and LA Lafayette will play in the Sun belt Championship game at 3:30 EST. These teams met back on October 12 where the Cajuns blew out the Mountaineers 41-13 at home with a 455-211 yard advantage. Most Championship games are held at neutral fields but this will be played in Cajun Stadium so there is no environmental shift from their previous game. The Cajuns are (6-2 ATS) as an underdog over the L3 years and successfully covered their one game as a home underdog this year. The Cajuns fall in a system of teams where the line is +3 to -3 that score 31+ points/game after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games (77-38 ATS) over the L10 seasons.

Pick: UL LAFAYETTE +2.5

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The 8-0 Colorado St. Rams will host the 8-1 St Mary's Gaels at 4 EST.  Both teams have had hot starts to the season but I expect the Rams shooting to give them the edge in this matchup as they are shooting 42% from deep and 82% form the FT line. This is a revenge game for the Rams as all 5 starters returned from last year when they lost to St. Mary's 53-33 but this should be a much different outcome in Colorado State. St Mary’s is (2-5 ATS) vs teams scoring 84+ points in the L2 seasons and the Rams fall in a (64%) system of home favorites 3.5 to 10 that shot 52+% from the field (121-68 ATS) since ‘97. Take Colorado st - the points at home.  

Pick: COLORADO ST -4

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Iowa and Michigan will meet in the BIG 10 Championship game held at Lucas Oil Stadium. Michigan is coming off a big upset win over Ohio State but unfortunately for Michigan they are (0-10 ATS) off an upset win under Coach Harbaugh, also favorites in the BIG 10 Championship are (2-7-1 ATS) in the L10 years. Iowa is (6-0 ATS) off a SU win and if you go back to before Harbaugh was head coach Michigan is (5-15 ATS) off an upset win. Look for Iowa's stingy defense that is allowing 18 PPG to keep this game within single digits tonight.

Pick IOWA +13.5

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 Fairfield will make their way to Buffalo to take on the Canisius Golden Griffins. Fairfield is coming off an upset loss at home to Loyola M-D but luckily for them they are (5-2 ATS) off an upset loss and (11-5 ATS) off a home loss. Canisius is terrible in the favorite/PK role going (3-14 ATS) in their L17 games as a favorite and (1-11 ATS) in their L12 as a home favorite. Canisius is also off an upset loss as a favorite but are (2-6 ATS) in the following game. Fairfield has covered 3 of the L4 meetings and will look to do it again tonight, Take Fairfield as a small dog.

FAIRFIELD +1

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 The 5-1 Monmouth Hawks will head to Niagara to face off with the 3-3 Purple Eagles at 7 EST. Don't let the records fool you as Niagara has faced Xavier as 17 point dogs and lost by 3, they also played Ohio St. as 20 point dogs and lost by 10. Monmouth is coming off a shocking upset win @ Cincinnati but are (1-12-1 ATS) off an upset road win while Niagara is (16-4 ATS) in their L20 home games and are (15-5 ATS) in their L20 games as an underdog. The home team in this series is (5-1 ATS) in the L6 meetings, play on Niagara at home tonight.

Pick: NIAGARA +2.5

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The Oregon Ducks and Utah Utes will play in the PAC-12 Championship tonight at 8PM EST. These teams met on November 20 where we had Utah -3 and they smoked the Ducks 38-7 but we will jump on Oregon in this revenge spot. The Ducks are (3-0 ATS) when revenging a blow out loss where the team scored 30+ points over the L3 seasons while Utah is (6-24 ATS) when favored against a revenge minded opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better since ‘92. A big reason for Utah’s blowout win over Oregon was because they were at home in front of a packed out crowd facing a top 5 team, now on a neutral site I expect Oregon to get their revenge. Oregon is (46-14 ATS) after allowing 3 points or less in the 1H of last game. Take Oregon to become PAC-12 Champs tonight and win outright as a small underdog.

Pick: OREGON +2.5

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 The PITT Panthers will play @ Virginia tonight to take on Tony Bennett's men. Virginia is coming off a loss to Iowa but are (21-11 ATS) when favored when favored by 10-15 points off a loss and are (34-18 ATS) as a home favorite of 10-15 points. PITT ranks #252 in effective FG% and facing a Virginia defense is not going to help as they hold opponents to 56PPG and are top 10 in block shots. PITT is (0-3 ATS) when playing a team with a 60+ win percentage this season and are (6-10 ATS) over the L3 seasons. Look for Virginia to bounce back off their loss with a big win tonight at home.

Pick: VIRGINIA -13.5

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The San Jose State Spartans will host North Dakota tonight at 10 EST. The Spartans have lost 3 games but all 3 came as double digit underdogs and they covered in 2 of them. North Dakota is a terrible road team going (3-13 ATS) in road games over the L2 seasons and are (1-13 ATS) as a road underdog of 6 to 9 points. San Jose falls in a weird system of favorites 3.5 to 10 points that allow 67-74 PPG playing against an opponent who allows 74-78 PPG after a combined score of 115 or less (16-4 ATS) over the L3 seasons. The Spartans are (3-0 ATS) at home this year and are (3-0 ATS) vs teams that force 13 or less turnovers/game. Play on San Jose State at home tonight.

Pick: SAN JOSE ST. -7

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Sacred Heart will play at Lafayette tonight at 7PM EST. We cashed on the Leopards a few days ago against Columbia where they won 73-50 and we will jump back on them today. There is a huge height advantage in this matchup for the Leopards with Neal Quinn who is 7’0 while Sacred hearts tallest man is just 6’6 and the Leopards have 3 other guys who are 6’7 to bully Sacred Heart down low. Lafayette has also been playing great defense holding Rutgers and Columbia to 28% from the field while Sacred Heart is allowing opponents to shoot 42.9%. Lafayette is (10-3 ATS) in their L13 games and are (3-0 ATS) as a home favorite from PK to -3. Play on Lafayette - the points tonight.

Pick: LAFAYETTE -2

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Northern Kentucky will head to Cleveland St. to take on the Vikings at 7EST. Northern Kentucky is shooting 39.1% from the field and are allowing opponents to shoot 46.8% which favors Cleveland St. since they are (10-0 ATS) vs teams who shoot 42% or worse and allow opponents to shoot 45+%, they are also (11-3 ATS) vs up tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. Northern Kentucky turns the ball over on 21% of their possessions ranking them #262 while Cleveland St. does a good job of limiting turnovers ranking #59. The Vikings have one of the most experienced rosters with an average of 2.92 years compared to N. Kentucky's 1.60 years. Cleveland State is also (7-0 ATS) after a game they failed to cover and Northern Kentucky is (0-3 ATS) as a road underdog of 3-6.5 points. Play on Cleveland State. 

Pick: CLEVELAND ST. -4

The New York Knicks will host the Chicago Bulls tonight in MSG at 7:30 EST. The Bulls are coming off a 133-119 win over Charlotte where they shot 59.6% from the field but the Bulls are (0-3 ATS) this season after a game where they shot 55+% . The line is set at 2 for this game and the Knicks excel when playing at home with a tight line going (20-3 ATS) in home games when the line is +3 to -3 over the L2 seasons. This is also a revenge game for the Knicks since they lost to the Bulls 109-103 back on November 21 and the Knicks are (37-19 ATS) when revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Play on the Knicks at home tonight who are also (20-8 ATS) vs teams with a winning percentage between 60 to 70%.

Pick: NY KNICKS +2

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Oral Roberts will travel to Texas to take on TCU as 9 point underdogs. This is a ton of points to give a talented Oral Roberts team who is (13-2 ATS) in their L15 games vs teams with winning records while TCU is (1-8 ATS) as a home favorite. Oral Roberts makes 14 3pt shots/game with a 39% make percentage and also average 87.5 PPG which does not fare well for TCU since they are (2-12 ATS) vs teams who make 8+ 3pt shots/game and are (1-8 ATS) vs teams who average 82+ PPG. Take Oral Roberts and the 9 points as I could see them pulling off the upset on the road tonight.

Pick: ORAL ROBERTS +9

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The Washington Wizards will finally return home after their 4 game road trip and will host the Minnesota T-wolves. The T-Wolves have been hot winning 7 of their L8 but are (0-2 ATS) this year after winning 6 or 7 of their L8 games and now have to play @ WAS where the Wizards are (7-2 ATS) at home. Minnesota struggles vs defenses that allow 108 points or less/game which the Wizards do holding opponents to 105.7 points/game. Minnesota also puts up a lot of 3 point shots which favors the Wizards since they are (13-3 ATS) vs teams who attempt 39+ 3pt shots/game over the L2 seasons and are (4-0 ATS) this year. Look for the Wizards to win and cover tonight after going (1-4 ATS) in their L5 (4 of those were on the road), this team is night and day when playing at home compared to on the road.

Pick: WAS WIZARDS -4