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At 9:40 EST the Giants and Padres will square off with two southpaws in Alex Wood and Blake Snell. Snell has looked much better as of late (3-0, 1.06) L3 starts but he seems to only string 2 or 3 QS together before he regresses and is (3-8) in B2B starts after allowing 2 runs or less while Wood for San Francisco has found great success in San Diego (3-1, 1.69) in 6 starts. Road teams on Sunday night baseball have been a wallet busting (1-8 SU/ 0-9 RL) in games the following day and the Giants are (13-9) when listed +150 or higher (+13.0 net games). Continue to fade the Padres since the deadline.

Pick: SF GIANTS +150

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At 12:05 EST the Astros will look to bounce back after dropping one yesterday to CLE 4-1 but are (28-11) off a loss and (12-3) after scoring 1 run or less. Javier is set to throw (6-7, 3.24) while Cleveland turns to Triston McKenzie (7-8, 3.38) but his hard hit% and barrel% rank low so I expect this Astros lineup after a rough day at the plate to jump up early. The Astros are also (31-11) when listed -100 to -150. Take Houston ML

Pick: HOU ASTROS -130

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The Tigers got the upset win yesterday 9-1 but we’ll fade them today since they are a terrible (0-8) with a 5.6 to 2.0 avg. run differential in their L8 following  win. Rasmussen for Tampa Bay faced this Tiger lineup back in May and went 5 scoreless innings on 7 pinchouts while Matt Manning has a small sample size this year with just 13 innings but he doesn't look much better than he did last season. The Tigers also rank towards the bottom in all hitting categories during day games and (22-32 RL). Take the Rays -1.5

Pick: TB RAYS -1.5 (-115)

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The Marlins will send Pablo Lopez to the bump after getting shelled last time out, 2.2 IP allowing 12 hits on 6 runs but look for a nice bounce back start from him today since he's only allowed double digit hits once in his career and followed that outing up with 7 innings of 1 hit ball and is (5-0, 1.11) after allowing 4+ runs. Miami (16-8) after scoring 3 runs or less in 4 straight games and (12-2) L14 Saturday games when Lopez starts while the Cubbies are (2-10) at home after getting 10 or less hits in their L2 games combined and (3-10) L13 Smyly starts. Take the Marlins ML.

Pick: MIA MARLINS -105

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At 7:15 EST Jordan Montgomery will face his former team after getting shipped at the deadline to STL. The Yankees groomed this kid signing him at 21 years old so they know everything about him while the Yanks send Domingo German who has not looked good since coming back going 12.2 IP in 3 starts allowing 9 runs on 17 hits and 4 HR’s. I expect to see runs early and often in ST Louis on a hot + humid night. The Yankees are also (21-9 OVER) L30 games. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-115)

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The D-backs and Rockies will play at 8:10 EST with Senzatela and Merill Kelly. Senzatela has been batting practice this year (3-6, 4.87) but according to advanced metrics his ERA should almost be a full run higher and he ranks in the bottom 5% in xBA, K% and Whiff%, he's also (0-3, 8.75) L3 starts vs Arizona while Kelly has a 2.75 ERA vs COL in his L3 starts at home. Colorado (2-8) L10 on the road and the D-Backs are (6-1) at home since the break including (5-0) L5 vs NL West. Take the D-Backs on the RL since the ML is too steep. 

Pick: AZ D-BACKS -1.5 (+130)

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Both teams come into this one off sweeps but Pitssburgh falls in a system of teams off a 3gm sweep over a divisional rival now playing an inter-league opponent (42-14) L5 seasons. Dean Kremer for BAL has also been regressing and advanced metrics say he's due for a couple more rough starts recording a 3.86 ERA but a 5.41 xERA. Take the Pirates ML at plus odds after sweeping the Brewers at home.

Pick: PIT PIRATES +135

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 Glenn Otto (auto) fade will throw for Texas tonight (4-7, 5.50) but ranks in the bottom 4% in xERA while Cease for Chicago (11-4, 2.01) ranking in the top 8% in xERA. This is a huge pitching mismatch and I would take the Sox bullpen over the Rangers any day so lay the -1.5 with the Sox tonight.

Pick: CHW WHITE SOX -1.5 (+100)

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At 8:10 EST the Royals will host the Red Sox with Nick Pivetta and Kris Bubic getting the starts. Pivetta hasn't been good this season (8-8, 4.47) but is (6-1) when he faces teams who average 0.9 HR’s/ game or less which the Royals do. Bubic is one of the worst advanced metric pitchers this season ranking in the bottom 5% in Hard Hit%, xwOPA, xERA and chase rate. Boston is (17-8) L25 vs L-H starters and fall in a *(91.9%) system* of road favorites -125 or more with a slugging% under .370 over their L15 games in the month of August (34-3) and (24-2) over the L3 seasons. Take the Red Sox ML.

Pick: BOS RED SOX -135

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The Tigers will host the Rays tonight at 7:10 EST with Jeff Springs and Drew Hutchison starting. Hutchinson (1-4, 4.53) but has gone 5+ innings allowing 2 runs or less in 3 of his L5 starts while Springs (3-3, 2.70) but has a 3.75 xERA and has given up 14 runs in his L24 innings of work along with 5 Home Runs. The Rays are a wallet busting (4-22) in road games off an upset win as a home dog over a divisional rival while Detroit falls in (68.3%) of home teams after they had 4 or less hits with a bullpen ERA under 2.50 over their L10 games (114-53). The Rays are also (2-5) in travel games coming from home. Take the Tigers at nice odds tonight.

Pick: DET TIGERS +155

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With all the newly acquired players in San Diego their lines will be inflated and now we're catching the Rockies on the RL at +140. Snell has looked good in his L2 starts but (3-11 RL) after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 starts while COL (27-17 RL) vs L-H starters. San Diego is also (3-13 RL) in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their L7 while COL (13-3 RL) after having lost 6 or 7 of their L8. Fade the Padres at these ridiculous odds on the run line

Pick: COL ROCKIES +1.5 (+140)